Gilles Kepel discusses potential peace agreement between Iran and the United States

This text corresponds to a transcription of part of the above interview. Click on the video to watch the full interview.

Myriam Encaoua: Is the purchasing power of Americans Donald Trump’s Achilles’ heel, more than anything else?

Gilles Kepel: Yes, this is what explains what is happening in the war in Iran where we are moving, at least for now, away from military confrontation and focusing on economic issues.

With already, but one must remain very cautious, a significant drop in the price of oil which has lost six dollars. What is your perspective on this turbulent day Gilles Kepel? Because things are very active at the White House. Tonight, the US President told AFP that a comprehensive peace agreement with Iran is close. Should we believe it?

He has said it many times already. When you lie a lot, you stop believing it. But why not? Since indeed, there has been a cessation of military activities. Indeed, for the past two days, Iran itself was not engaging in hostilities. It was proxies, militias from Iraq, who sent some missiles and drones to Kuwait and Bahrain. The United Arab Emirates were not affected, nor was Saudi Arabia. And in Lebanon, we now see a form of non-belligerence. It is clear that both sides are willing, for now, to stop the fighting to enter a different type of negotiation, an economic and political negotiation.

Including the Iranians? Do you think they are now inclined to enter this new phase?

It is very difficult to say when we do not have the figures at hand and when everything about Iran is an opaque continent for information. But the calculation we can make is that Iran is in a catastrophic economic situation. This was already the case before. There have been massive destruction of infrastructure and the counter-blockade, meaning that of the Americans, which has pushed back about ten ships loaded with Iranian oil, is something that works.

Tactical victory of the American naval blockade?

For now, yes. That is to say, in essence, it was thought that the Americans would not dare. Some commentators said that the United States would never dare to stop a tanker flying the Chinese flag in front of American destroyers. However, the tankers did not have Chinese flags because they were bulk carriers under sanctions, oil under sanctions. They had flags from Malawi or flags of convenience. And so none passed. So there, in a way, the United States succeeded in initiating a process that weighs on China’s supply of Iranian oil and above all reduces Iran’s revenues.

Do you think China could have also influenced this opening? We have this opening announced by the Iranian Foreign Minister. Can we really speak of an opening tonight, an Iranian one in the Strait of Hormuz?

Let’s wait and see, but so far, the Iranians had not said they were reopening. Indeed, the Chinese cannot afford, even if they currently have significant hydrocarbon reserves, for this situation to last forever since they are a manufacturing empire that needs a constant flow of hydrocarbons, otherwise they will be in a bad situation. This is not necessarily what they want. Furthermore, we see that all countries have a desire to slow things down. For example, if the oil flow were blocked for a long time, including LNG, we will have problems with kerosene and some airlines have already – KLM, Lufthansa – canceled flights and blocked a number of routes starting at the end of the month.

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