China raising its voice after a month and a half of conflict? President Xi Jinping reacted to developments in the Middle East war on Tuesday, April 14, during a meeting with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Khaled ben Mohammed ben Zayed Al Nahyane. “Preserving the authority of international law should not mean using it when it suits us, and rejecting it when it does not,” criticized the leader, two days after Donald Trump announced the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran claimed Friday to have “completely opened” it for the rest of the ceasefire.
[Ambiguous diplomacy]
On the first day of the war, Chinese diplomacy quickly denounced the first Israeli-American strikes against Tehran, condemning “a violation of international law.” The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, “constitutes a serious violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security,” it added, calling for respect for the “basic standards governing international relations.”
By defending “the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of all Gulf countries,” Beijing shows “timid support” towards its Iranian partner, according to Marc Julienne, director of the Asia Center at Ifri.
“Taking a firm stand on Tehran’s side potentially alienates other partners: the Gulf countries” affected by Iranian reprisals. China also does not want to worsen its relations with the United States, in a context of ‘warming’ relations between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
In the conflict between Washington and Tel Aviv in Tehran, China has presented a five-point plan with the help of Pakistan to “restore peace and stability” in the Middle East. The initiative, presented at the end of March, urged the belligerents to “immediately cease hostilities,” start peace negotiations, and ensure, among other things, the security of civilian infrastructure.
After the failure of negotiations between Iran and the United States in Pakistan, Xi Jinping promised on Tuesday that his country would “continue to play a constructive role” in resuming talks.
“There is a lack of experience in crisis mediation in China,” observes Marc Julienne. “For me, Pakistan is a leader in these negotiations.”
[Economic interests in Iran and the Gulf]
This mediator image is also explained by China’s significant and diverse interests in the Middle East, from Iran to the Gulf countries. “It has good relations with each party,” notes Marc Julienne.
“Talking, trading with everyone, that’s China’s hallmark, it’s its advantage in the Middle East. It is important for Beijing to preserve this,” Marc Julienne added.
“Iran represents 13-14% of China’s total oil imports. For the entire Gulf region, we are around 50%,” specifies Marc Julienne.
In this context, Donald Trump’s naval blockade of the strategic zone described as dangerous and irresponsible by Guo Jiakun, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, did not suit his great rival. “China is experiencing this situation,” notes Marc Julienne, with consequences on the domestic front, as “the price of oil has increased.”
It was also among the countries participating in the conference on Friday organized by France and the United Kingdom to restore free movement in the zone.
Donald Trump dreams of a Chinese conciliation
While China may foresee, the United States seem determined not to let it act behind the scenes. Sources close to intelligence services told CNN that Beijing intended to sell weapons to Iran to fight American and Israeli troops.
In an interview with American television Fox Business, Donald Trump claimed Wednesday to have written to Xi Jinping to demand that he not go in that direction. In response, his counterpart assured him that “that’s not what he’s doing,” reported the billionaire. Two days later, Guo Jiakun rejected “baseless slanders” and “malicious accusations.”
Marc Julienne remains “very cautious” in the face of what would constitute a “very significant change” on China’s part.
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