To anticipate what might happen next, Ifri has brought together a panel of specialists who will analyze the possible ways events could unfold and the consequences of two scenarios: an optimistic one that could lead to a quick blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and a pessimistic one that could result in escalation.
Speakers: Sébastien Jean, associate director of the Geoeconomics and Geofinance Initiative at Ifri Dorothée Schmid, head of the Turkey/Middle East program at Ifri Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, director of the Energy and Climate Center at Ifri
Moderator: Marc Hecker, executive director of Ifri, editor-in-chief of Politique étrangère, and researcher at Ifri’s Security Studies Center
Find out more about the conference here.
KEY POINTS: 1. Geopolitical Dynamics and Negotiation Formats – Failure of talks in Pakistan has reshaped regional power dynamics: Emergence of middle powers: Pakistan has become a prominent mediator, securing a ceasefire in Lebanon by pressuring the Trump administration. Egypt and Turkey have also aligned with the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan bloc. European autonomy: France, the UK, and now Italy are coordinating a common position to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid perceived erratic US diplomacy. France is seen as a reliable partner by Gulf countries. Iran’s strategy: Tehran is using the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate its central role in globalization and demand an end to sanctions, linking the strait’s reopening to the ceasefire in Lebanon. Nuclear issue: Donald Trump seems inclined to resume nuclear negotiations unilaterally, sidelining the multilateral format (JCPOA) including Europeans, Chinese, and Russians, though the latter may seek reentry.
2. Energy Markets: Rebalancing and Fragilities – Oil and gas situation marked by paradoxes: Production shock: 7 million barrels/day were withdrawn from the Gulf in March. Saudi Arabia redirected two-thirds of its flows to the Red Sea, while the UAE revived its Fujairah terminal. Strategic stocks: Surprisingly, China has not tapped into its massive reserves and continues to receive Iranian oil through direct negotiations. Limitations of alternatives: Venezuela has vast resources, but infrastructure decay makes quick compensation impossible without significant investments. Land pipelines are costly and vulnerable to drone attacks. Gas in Europe: Market calm due to seasonal demand trough, but restocking has not commenced.
3. Europe’s Resilience and Sovereignty – Europe seen as more robust in 2022 facing an energy crisis: Low-carbon production: Europe has an additional 350 TWh of decarbonized electricity (300 TWh from renewables and 50 TWh from nuclear). Electrification: With 30 million heat pumps and 700,000 charging points, alternatives to hydrocarbons are now concrete. Structural challenges: Despite resilience, Europe faces delays in infrastructure projects and lacks a unified gas strategy.
4. Cross-Cutting Economic Impacts – Conflict triggers cascading risks: Inflation and rates: Global inflation could hit 6% in a severe scenario. European long-term rates have already risen by 40 basis points, affecting real estate and investment. Industrial shortages: Critical bottlenecks emerge on helium (semiconductors), sulfur, and fertilizers (global food security). Market paradox: Optimistic markets believe escalation is in nobody’s interest, particularly for Trump before the midterms where gasoline prices are a major political issue.
5. Situation in Gaza and Lebanon – Israel/US divergence: Israel seeks military annihilation (Hamas, Hezbollah) while the US aims for a political solution. Lebanon: Israel may consider a buffer zone covering up to 20% of Lebanese territory in the south. Reconstruction: Trump has mentioned reconstruction projects for Gaza and Iran, suggesting “economic gain” could be a diplomatic lever if trust is restored. Asymmetric threats: Low-cost risk (drones and missiles) remains the primary threat to vital infrastructure like desalination plants in Kuwait (97% of its potable water).
Lastly, there is explicit mention of a potential kerosene shortage risk in summer 2026 as a consequence of logistical chain disorganization. Europe’s stronger resilience in 2022, with additional low-carbon electricity and increasing electrification, is highlighted across all scenarios.
