The Arm

Diplomats worked behind the scenes on Tuesday to organize a new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran, after Washington implemented a blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran threatened to retaliate by striking targets in the war-torn region.

President Donald Trump supported the idea of a second round of negotiations happening “over the next two days,” telling the New York Post that talks could resume in the capital of Pakistan.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres echoed this sentiment, stating that it was “highly likely” that talks would resume. He mentioned a meeting he had with Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar.

The first series of talks aimed at definitively ending the conflict between the United States and Iran did not result in an agreement last weekend. The White House stated that Iran’s nuclear ambitions were a major sticking point.

An American official indicated on Tuesday that new discussions with Iran were still under consideration and nothing had been scheduled. The official spoke anonymously as they were not authorized to discuss sensitive negotiations.

While the ceasefire from last week appeared to hold, the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz risked reigniting hostilities and worsening the economic repercussions of the war on a regional scale.

The war, now in its seventh week, has shaken markets and disrupted the global economy as a significant portion of maritime traffic has been halted. Airstrikes have damaged military and civilian infrastructure throughout the region.

The fighting has resulted in at least 3000 deaths in Iran, over 2000 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel, and more than a dozen in the Arab states of the Gulf. Thirteen American soldiers have also been killed.

A Tanker Spotted Offshore

The blockade aims to pressure Iran, which has exported millions of barrels of oil, primarily to Asia, since the start of the war. Much of these exports likely went through “clandestine transits” that evade sanctions and surveillance, providing crucial liquidity to Iran.

The nature of the blockade enforcement and the level of compliance by ships remained uncertain on its first full day of implementation on Tuesday. Tankers approaching the strait on Monday turned back shortly after it came into effect, although one of them turned back and crossed the waterway on Tuesday.

The tanker Rich Starry was waiting off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, according to maritime data company Lloyd’s List, which cited information from energy cargo tracking company Vortexa. It is not clear if the Rich Starry had previously stopped in Iran. However, it is listed among the ships associated with Iranian maritime traffic by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

Since the beginning of the war, Iran has restricted maritime traffic, with most commercial ships avoiding that waterway.

The effective closure of the strait by Iran, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes in peacetime, has sharply raised oil prices, leading to increases in gasoline, food, and other essential commodities beyond the Middle East.

President Donald Trump stated on Monday that Iran’s control of the strait amounted to blackmail and extortion as the American blockade took effect. He wrote on social media that the Iranian navy had been “decimated” but still possessed “fast-attack ships.”

He warned that, “if one of these ships comes close to our BLOCKADE, it will be IMMEDIATELY DESTROYED.” Iran threatened to retaliate against Persian Gulf ports in case of an attack.

French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will co-chair a conference on Friday bringing together countries willing to deploy warships to escort tankers and container ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This deployment will occur “when security conditions allow,” Macron’s office stated on Tuesday.