The American army announced on Sunday that it would impose a blockade starting from Monday (4pm, French time) on “ships of all nationalities entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas” due to the lack of an agreement to end the conflict. Le Parisien provides an overview of this latest development that weighs on the global economy.
Why did the United States decide to block the strait?
The American decision marks a major escalation. It comes after failed negotiations between Washington and Tehran on the terms to end the conflict. The United States expected an Iranian surrender, but after less than a day of discussion, American representatives believed they would not achieve anything significant from the opposing party.
Donald Trump has chosen to respond with force. The goal is twofold: to prevent Tehran from using the strait as a leverage point and to regain control of a strategically important passage that has already been significantly disrupted by Iranian threats and attacks on ships.
What does this blockade entail?
Unlike targeted Iranian restrictions, the American blockade is intended to be total. “The American navy will begin the process of blocking all ships,” announced Donald Trump. In essence, it is a naval blockade led by the American fleet in the area, under the authority of the military command for the Middle East (Centcom).
The United States has also begun mine-clearing operations and deployed destroyers to monitor maritime traffic in and around the strait. However, the American army has specified that it would allow the passage of ships not heading to or from Iran. But it is easy to imagine that these ships will be threatened by Tehran, making any circulation impossible.
How and for how long will this blockade be enforced?
The measure covers the entire strategic zone, from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, including Iranian ports. Centcom specifies that the blockade will apply to “all ships of all nationalities” entering or leaving Iranian coastal zones. In other words, Washington is not only securing the passage but also seeking to economically suffocate Iran by controlling maritime flows related to its exports.
No specific duration has been announced. The blockade is presented as an evolving measure, linked to the progress of the conflict and possible Iranian concessions. It could last as long as negotiations remain at an impasse. On the ground, the situation remains very unstable: Iran claims to control the strait and threatens to retaliate, raising fears of a direct confrontation between navies.
Could this blockade force Iran’s hand? “There is little reason to think that a blockade would force Iran to capitulate,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv. In fact, the country’s resilience so far suggests the opposite.
What are the consequences on oil and the global economy?
The effects are already visible. The announcement of the blockade immediately pushed prices up: the price of American oil (WTI) rose above $100 a barrel. More broadly, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz disrupts a zone through which approximately 20% of global oil transits, leading to a price surge that could exceed $120 a barrel at the height of the crisis. This situation is described as one of the most serious threats to global energy supply since the 1970s.
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