Against All Odds, China’s Exports Rise Globally and to the US
Surprisingly, China’s exports increased by 14.1% globally and 11.3% to the United States in April. An impressive resilience amidst an international crisis.
China seems less affected than expected by the Middle East war. In fact, this April saw growth in its exports to the United States, according to figures released by the Customs Administration on Saturday.
Globally, exports increased by 14.1% year-on-year last month, while imports surged by 25.3% during the same period. These numbers exceeded expectations, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipating only an 8.4% increase in exports and a 20% increase in imports. They also outperformed March’s figures when exports only rose by 2.5% year-on-year, less than experts had predicted.
For the United States, exports rose by 11.3% year-on-year in April, following declines in previous months: 11% in January-February and 26.5% in March compared to the previous year. A drop attributed to American tariffs.
Summit Meeting Expected Next Week
This significant progress comes as Donald Trump is expected to visit Beijing next week. The agenda for discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly includes trade, tariffs, and trade imbalances in favor of China.
The two countries have been engaged in a fierce trade war for several years, but a turning point was reached in 2025 with exorbitant tariffs and multiple restrictions after Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The two leaders reached at least a temporary truce in October, the outcomes of which are eagerly awaited.
In late February, the US Supreme Court overturned a large part of Donald Trump’s tariffs. However, Washington has maintained specific tariffs against China and could impose new ones. Chinese exports to the United States declined by 20% in 2025, even as China achieved a record global trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion. Shipments to the US totaled $36.8 billion in April 2026, up from $33 billion in 2025.
Overreliance on International Trade
Exports continue to act as an engine for the Chinese economy. However, this dependence remains a vulnerability as internal economic conditions deteriorate. Issues such as the real estate crisis, local government debt, overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and high youth unemployment currently plague the country.
For now, Chinese trade seems to withstand the Middle East crisis. Experts even expect exports to remain at a good level in the near future, supported by strong demand for semiconductors and green technologies.
Diversification in production and energy supply makes China more resilient than others against the immediate shock of war. Still, specialists caution against the risks of a prolonged crisis and a slowdown in the global economy for a nation so reliant on international trade.
