Historical Trend
It is only after the summer that the campaign for the midterm elections will truly take off. All the seats in the House of Representatives are at stake, as well as one-third of the Senate seats and several governor positions. These elections are seen as an opportunity for voters to show their support or disapproval toward the president, halfway through his term.
“Almost every election since World War II, with two exceptions, the party of the sitting president has lost votes,” noted Eric Gertler, CEO of U.S. News & World Report, a magazine published in Washington, who also participated in the CORIM conference led by Catherine Loubier, former Quebec delegate general in New York.
Currently, the Republicans control Congress. However, the Democrats only need three seats to flip the House of Representatives and four to take control of the Senate, as Mr. Gertler pointed out. A divided Congress, or a Democratic majority, could block Trump’s path and create a deadlock.
Already, some Democratic officials have announced they would pursue impeachment proceedings against Trump if they gained control of the House of Representatives. The weeks following the election could be very tumultuous. Especially since the results from several close races could be contested if they fall within the margin of error, the analyst emphasized.
“Many seats may not be immediately assigned in the House of Representatives, and we do not exactly know what the consequences will be. This could lead to even more instability and chaos, as the electoral process could prolong well beyond the scheduled date,” he stated.
If one of the chambers flips, the question will also arise whether Trump will accept a Republican defeat. “There are many aspects at play. I think Trump will do what it takes to ensure he can continue to implement his program. But it is premature to determine what might happen,” Mr. Gertler mentioned.
