On April 17, Washington announced the renewal of the waiver allowing the purchase of Russian oil currently present at sea, until May 16. This arrangement excludes transactions involving Iran, Cuba, and North Korea, following an initial 30-day waiver that expired on April 11.
Initially, the Secretary of the Treasury justified this measure as aiming to “expand the global reach of existing supply.” The administration reiterated the rationale yesterday: “As negotiations progress, the Treasury seeks to ensure that oil remains available for those in need.”
The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have been particularly beneficial for Moscow, as the average price of Ural crude reached $106.30 per barrel in the first thirteen days of April, representing a 42% increase from March.
This price level exceeds the $59 per barrel forecasted in Russia’s federal budget for 2026, potentially offering Moscow an unexpected fiscal surplus if the trend continues. The fiscal impact is even more substantial when measured in rubles.
According to Olga Belenkaya cited by Bloomberg, each additional dollar in the annual price of Ural oil generates around 150 billion rubles in additional tax revenue. Petroleum and gas revenues could reach 900-950 billion rubles in April, compared to 617 billion in March.
Despite these favorable price conditions, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian export infrastructure along the Baltic and Black Sea coastlines are disrupting Moscow’s export capacity significantly. Attacks on refineries, terminals, and ports have accelerated the depletion of Russian oil reserves stored at sea, affected by the U.S. waiver.
As crude prices fell below $90 on April 17 due to positive signals about potential U.S.-Iran agreement and Iran’s announcement of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, recent developments and naval attacks in the strait could quickly reignite market pressures.
