(BFM Bourse) – The survey research group adjusts to the market after delivering growth below expectations in the first quarter, primarily penalized by the United States. Despite this slow start, Ipsos remains confident for the future and maintains its annual outlook communicated in February.
Ipsos, the specialist in market research and opinion polls, revealed disappointing activity in the first three months of the year.
For the first quarter, the group reported a 2.4% decline in its revenue, amounting to €554.9 million. Organically, Ipsos experienced a 1.4% decrease in its revenue (excluding exchange rate and perimeter variations).
Allinvest Securities notes that Ipsos’ quarterly revenue is 3% below expectations. The research bureau clearly missed expectations in terms of growth in comparable data. Oddo BHF points out that the consensus expected a 1.1% increase in organic data.
“It is the Americas region (especially the United States) that explains this recession (-4.1%) while the Asia-Pacific and EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) regions are nearly stable (+0.2% and +0.1% respectively),” details the research bureau.
For Oddo BHF, Ipsos’ revenue is “clearly disappointing.” The financial intermediary indicated that this disappointment is likely to weigh on the stock price, especially after the recent significant increase. As expected, Ipsos’ stock plunged by 15.30% on Friday, April 17, pointing to the second-largest decline in the SBF 120, behind Alstom’s 30% collapse following a severe results warning.
Nevertheless, not everything in this release is negative. Ipsos revealed a positive commercial momentum in the first quarter, with a 1% growth in organic order backlog at the end of March, in line with the company’s expectations at this stage of the year.
The group notably observed a recovery in demand in “public affairs” in the United States and France, good performance with major international clients and in consumer goods, and significant improvement in China (rapid adoption of artificial intelligence-related technologies).
Ipsos emphasizes that the orders recorded in March result in a delay between the backlog increase and its revenue recognition.
Unchanged 2026 forecasts
Judged “encouraging” by Oddo BHF, the commercial momentum mentioned by Ipsos for March allows the company to maintain its forecasts as communicated in February. For this year, Ipsos still aims for organic revenue growth between 2% and 3% and a stable operating margin at 12.3%. The company specifies that these indications take into account the deconsolidation of its activities in Russia with high profitability and the dilutive effect of including The BVA Family for 12 months instead of 6 months in 2025.
2026 marks the initial step in the deployment of its strategic plan “Horizon 2030” presented during its investor day on January 22. This strategic roadmap aims to revive the group’s growth momentum, backed by a transformation investment plan of over one billion euros over five years, primarily through acquisitions and strategic investments, primarily financed by free cash flow.
The goal is to achieve a 5% growth in comparable data by 2030. Oddo BHF, for its part, maintains its results forecasts following this announcement.
“Ipsos offers comfortable margins, ongoing free cash flow, a healthy balance sheet, and high shareholder returns. It lacks growth, which, if it rebounds this year as promised, should lead to a rerating of valuation multiples,” appreciates Oddo BHF, who remains “overperform” on the stock with a target price of 50 euros.
Ipsos also addressed tensions in the Middle East. The group stated observing a localized slowdown in the Middle East, with no impact on its annual forecasts. “No significant cancellations or postponements of orders have been noted so far related to the conflict,” the company added.
Sabrina Sadgui – ©2026 BFM Bourse
