Parliamentary elections have been organized in April 2026 in a few states in India. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Prime Minister Modi’s party, emerges overall victorious. Philippe Humbert, member of the Foundation’s Asia-Pacific Observatory, analyzes the results of these different elections.
The elections which took place between April 8 and 29, 2026 in four states (Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal) and one Union Territory (Pondicherry) to elect MPs to the legislative assemblies constituted, with a sample of 235 million people, a significant political test.
Three states – Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal – were bastions of opposition to the BJP, the dominant party in India’s politics since 2014, which aims to extend its grip across the country. These states with a strong cultural, linguistic and historical identity, distinct from theNot Heartlandhad until now resisted attempts by the BJP to take control of local assemblies and executives. To this end, the BJP and its allies have for months mobilized their campaign headquarters in these three states led by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, Minister of the Interior.
In Assam, the challenge for the BJP was to retain its majority and confirm its establishment in the northeastern states of India, a territory of recent conquest for the BJP.
In India, state-level elections are subject to distinct and often complex issues, state by state. But overall lessons can be drawn from these results announced collectively on May 4, 2026.
Kerala (140 seats to be filled)
For several decades, this state of 36 million inhabitants has been led alternately by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) – within the Left Democratic Front (LDF) coalition – or by the UDF (United Democratic Front) coalition in which the Congress Party participates, both formations each oscillating around 45% of the votes. Breaking with the usual alternation, the LDF had won the last two elections and held 99 seats out of 140 in the legislative assembly, the UDF retaining 41 seats and – a notable fact – in the total absence of the BJP.
These parties, united nationally in the INDIA coalition, opposed to the BJP, oppose Kerala on two lines reflecting their electorate. The LDF is faithful to a social democratic orientation with a Marxist background, based more on notions of social class (workers, peasants, small middle class) to which a part of the high intellectual castes rallies. The UDF combines liberal centrism with the support of influential classes and religious groups (Christians, Muslims).
According to the results announced on May 4, Kerala returns to alternation: the UDF (102 seats, including 61 for the Congress) largely wins over the LDF (35 seats). The emblematic leader Pinarayi Vijayan of the LDF was defeated in his own constituency. The BJP did not succeed in breaking the alternation but progressed, collecting 12% of the votes and winning 3 seats.
Tamil Nadu (234 seats)
In this neighboring state of Kerala, the 56 million voters were called upon to divide two “Dravidian” coalitions (in reference to the languages and peoples of the South): the one in power since 2018, the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) – led by the Dravidian Federation of Progress (Dravidra Munnetra Kazhagam, DMK) of Chief Minister Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin, alongside the Congress and the two communist parties (133 seats) – and the AIADMK coalition (60 seats), supported mainly by the BJP. HAS
The electoral “manifestos” published just before the elections are not distinguishable at first glance insofar as they bring together a catalog of provisions all falling under “Welfare”, that is to say a list of “freebies” (allowances targeted financial resources). But differences appear between the “secularist” discourse of the SPA and the opportunistic call of the AIADMK for an alignment with the BJP majority in power in Delhi, supposed to benefit the state of Tamil Nadu in the event of victory.
The surprise came from a newcomer, the Victory Party of Tamilakam (TVK), founded in 2024 by a very popular film actor, Joseph Vijay Chandrasekaran, who thus extends the tradition of seeing film stars playing a major role in politics in this state. TVK comes first with 107 seats, against the DMK (74) and the AIADMK (53), beating Stalin at the end of a non-ideological campaign, in direct communication with the youth, calling for generational change.
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West Bengal (293 seats)
In this large state populated by 106 million inhabitants, the April 2026 elections had a particular meaning. After putting an end in 2011 to the domination of the communist left in power since 1977, Prime Minister Mamata Banerjee and her All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) party aimed to obtain a fourth term, which would have been a unique performance in India, and to resist the BJP offensive, although decided to conquer this bastion of the opposition. HAS
Like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, this state is distinguished by a level of education higher than the Indian average, a very high literacy percentage of women between 15 and 49 years old (93%), a low fertility rate (1.3 children per woman), an ancient and prestigious culture (the Nobel Prize of literature, Rabindranath Tagore, the filmmaker Satyajit Ray, etc.) and an original Bengali identity historically marked by a harmonious multiculturalism between Muslims (27% of the population), Hindus and Christians.
But unlike the southern states, economic development is little diversified (tea plantations and mono-jute industry), growth is limited to around 2-3% per year, while a generous welfare state is financed by debt – a theme overwhelmingly used by the BJP which also denounces the historic decline of the industry.
Furthermore, illegal immigration from Muslim Bangladesh (“infiltrators”) creates a favorable breeding ground for the BJP’s identity ideas. Mamata Banerjee’s ambition to embody the opposition to Narendra Modi on a national level further increased the stakes of this election.
As a result, the clear defeat of the TMC (81 seats) and the victory of the BJP (206 seats), the historic left being reduced to a single seat, have a considerable regional and national impact. It is the opening of a new political cycle in Bengal after that of the Left and that of the TMC, and also the fall of Mamata Banerjee as a potential national leader of the opposition to Narendra Modi.
Pondicherry (30 sièges)
This Union territory, with special status for historical reasons, has the characteristic of aligning its policy with the power of Delhi. Thus, the 30-seat assembly is currently dominated by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) of the BJP (16 seats) against the INDIA coalition (8) and others (6) led by the Congress. The April 2026 elections confirmed the existing balance of power in favor of the BJP.
Assam
In this state of 37 million inhabitants, 126 seats in the Legislative Assembly were at stake during the elections last April, including the 75, or the absolute majority, held by the BJP and the 51 by a coalition led by the Congress (31 seats). There too, the theme of the dangers of illegal immigration coming from Muslim Bangladesh was massively used by the BJP which highlighted the performance of the new Prime Minister elected in 2021.
The April 2026 elections increased the BJP’s majority (102 seats and 48% of the votes) by consolidating the existing chief minister, while the Congress fell to 21 seats and 30% of the votes.
Conclusion
These elections certainly have distinct characteristics depending on the state, but the general impression is that on the whole they reflect an aspiration for change captured either by the BJP (West Bengal), or by a newcomer (TVK in Tamil Nadu), or simply a need for alternation in power in place (Kerala), Assam rather being confirmation of a recent change.
Even if the participation rate, which in some cases exceeds 80% of those registered, was favored by the revision of the electoral lists, it shows the interest of voters and establishes the representativeness of the results, including the Differences, it must be remembered, are amplified by the one-round majority voting method (effect of “swing »).
Three chief ministersimportant leaders of the INDIA bloc – Banerjee, Stalin and Vijayan –, lose their positions. The defeat of Mamata Banerjee, the most notable due to her national stature as a virulent critic of Narendra Modi, weakens the opposition. A national party, the Congress has free rein to lead the opposition, but its setbacks outside Kerala confirm its weaknesses. In a symbolic way, the communist left is absent from any regional executive for the first time in fifty-seven years.
Conversely, well organized, the territorial network of the BJP, energized by ambitious and charismatic leaders and considerable financial means, is supported by two powerful levers: that ofidentity politicsthat is to say the defense of Hinduness, and that of the resentment of “aspirational” youth looking for employment, who cannot be satisfied with freebies proposed by all parties. The case of prosperous Tamil Nadu is particularly significant of the desire for renewal of the young, educated and female electorate (a third of voters are between 18 and 34 years old).
Beyond these root causes, the opportunistic maneuvers of the BJP, in particular its denunciation of the rejection by the opposition of the project to create a quota of 33% for women in the Lok Sabha and in local executives, rejection justified by joint projects on the 50% increase in the number of deputies and the delimitation of constituencies – risking reducing the share of the southern states with low birth rates –, favored the gains of the BJP. Furthermore, the particularly hasty revision of the electoral lists in West Bengal suggests a bias based on the reconciliation of the percentage difference. of votes between the BJP (45%) and TMC (40.8%) and the number and profile of voters deregistered as part of the Special Intensive Revision.
The BJP and its allies, overcoming the setback of the 2024 general elections and now at the head of 22 states out of 28, aim for new conquests (Punjab, Himachal Pradesh) to have the institutional means to resume the reform agenda (civil status unique, “One Nation, One Election” – making all elections coincide on the same day –, etc.) leading to the unification of the Hindu nation, the ultimate goal of theHindutva.
