Efforts are intensifying Thursday to end the war between the United States and Iran, with the visit to Tehran of a new senior Pakistani official, mediator of the discussions.
This comes as Donald Trump warned the day before that the situation was “on the brink,” between reaching an agreement or a resumption of hostilities.
On Thursday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that progress had been made. “I believe that the Pakistanis will arrive in Tehran today. So let’s hope that this will move things forward,” he told reporters.
The powerful chief of the Pakistani army, Asim Munir, is expected in Iran to “continue discussions with Iranian officials,” according to the Isna news agency and other media outlets.
Pakistan is stepping up its mediation efforts: in recent days, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visited twice, bringing with him the latest American proposal, which the Iranian government said it was reviewing.
But the Islamic Republic has reiterated its demands: “unfreezing of blocked Iranian assets” abroad and an end to the American blockade of Iranian ports. And it has insisted that it will “never yield to intimidation.”
The Revolutionary Guards have threatened to “extend the war well beyond the region.”
“Moving Quickly”
Since the fragile ceasefire came into effect on April 8 after more than a month of war, discussions have been ongoing, with both countries sticking to their positions.
Only one real negotiating session, unsuccessful, took place on April 11 in Pakistan. And now the negotiations are taking place behind the scenes.
The conflict, triggered by an Israeli-American attack on Tehran on February 28, has resulted in thousands of deaths, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.
On Thursday, a new strike damaged a hospital in Tebnine, according to Lebanese authorities.
“Either we reach an agreement, or we will take slightly more severe measures,” said the US president on Wednesday. “It’s on the brink, believe me.”
According to the billionaire, an agreement with Iran would save “a lot of time, energy and lives” and it could be concluded “very quickly, or within a few days.”
Faced with these uncertainties, stock markets remained cautious on Thursday and oil prices rose again, with North Sea Brent around 107 euros. The International Energy Agency (IEA) fears that the oil market may enter a “red zone” this summer, in the absence of a sustainable resolution to the conflict.
“Divergences Trump/Netanyahu”
Moreover, American media report divergent strategies between Donald Trump and his Israeli ally, Benjamin Netanyahu.
The two men had a tense phone conversation on Tuesday, according to CNN and CBS. The Israeli Prime Minister “will do as I want him to,” Mr. Trump reportedly said afterward.
This indicates, according to these media outlets, that Washington continues to push for a diplomatic solution while Israel wants to resume fighting.
Israel ultimately aims to overthrow the Islamic Republic, its sworn enemy, while “for the United States, the priority has always been to prevent nuclearization, even if it means finding a compromise with the current regime,” commented Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
The American administration is seeking a resolution to this unpopular conflict, as the war has severely disrupted the global economy, due to the near blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz by Tehran, through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas used to transit.
Iran officially announced the establishment of an entity to oversee this maritime route earlier this week and apparently to charge tolls for passage. “Over the past 24 hours, 31 ships have been able to pass through,” the Revolutionary Guards stated on their Sepah News website.
This “Authority of the Persian Gulf Strait” (#PGSA) also claimed control over a zone extending to the waters south of the Emirati port of Fujairah, at the heart of Abu Dhabi’s strategy to bypass the strait blockade.
“The (Iranian) regime is trying to impose a new reality,” reacted Emirati President’s advisor Anwar Gargash, calling these attempts to control the strait a “pipe dream.”
In parallel, the Emirates announced a new aid package totaling over 350 million euros for their businesses.
The aftershocks of the conflict also affect the eurozone: the European Commission has significantly lowered the growth forecasts for the 21 countries sharing the single currency.
AFP.
