An expert in the Ukrainian military has stated that they see “no signs of a concentration of forces and materials from the Belarusian side of the border.” Such an offensive is “unlikely.”
Ukraine has deployed forces “unprecedentedly” in its northern part, at the border with Belarus, citing on Thursday, May 21, the threat of a new attack from this state allied with Russia.
These measures, described as “unprecedented in terms of the quantity of deployed forces and resources” by the security services (SBU), aim to “constitute an efficient deterrent against any aggressive action or operation from the enemy (Russian) and its ally.” The police, army, national guard, and border guards are involved in this deployment. Five regions, including Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Rivne, are concerned. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned in Slavutych, in the north of his country, discussing with local officials the construction of defensive structures.
Belarus and Russia “must clearly feel that there will be consequences if there are aggressive actions against Ukraine,” he said on Telegram. On Monday, the Kremlin dismissed Ukrainian allegations that Moscow was involving Minsk in the conflict.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko assured on Thursday that his country poses “no threat to anyone” but was ready to defend Russia “by all possible means.”
Kiev threatened?
For several weeks, Ukraine has expressed concerns that Russia may use Belarus to launch a new offensive from the north, including towards the capital. Similar fears were raised in 2023 and 2024 without materializing.
However, at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Belarus allowed Russian troops to launch a massive attack from its territory towards the north of Ukrainian territory and Kiev.
Russia and Belarus have been conducting military exercises involving Russian nuclear forces since Tuesday, scheduled to end on Thursday. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the army had successfully conducted test firings of Kinzhal, Yars, Sineva, and Iskander-M missiles, with nuclear capabilities, as well as the hypersonic Zircon missile.
Questioned by AFP about the likelihood of an offensive from Belarus, Ukrainian military expert Sergui Zgourets estimated such a scenario as unlikely and stated seeing “no signs of a concentration of forces and materials from the Belarusian side of the border.” According to him, the Ukrainian announcements should be seen as “preventive information measures” aimed at Moscow.
