The UN warns of a risk of massive food crisis if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues

Tens of millions of people are at risk of starvation if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, a UN official has stated.

If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, 45 million people are at risk of famine. This was the urgent warning issued by the head of a UN task force on Monday, May 11. Oil is not the only product passing through this essential global trade route, there are also chemical fertilizers. A third of all fertilizers transported by sea passed through Hormuz. This major disruption in the supply chain could lead to a major humanitarian crisis.

According to the UN, we only have a few weeks to avoid catastrophe because crops will need fertilizers starting in early June. Agriculture has a fixed schedule that cannot be changed or delayed, and without fertilizers, yields will collapse with no existing stocks.

The impact is expected to be significant according to the head of the UN task force established at the end of March to address the blockade. “When the crisis erupted, we knew that a few countries would be affected, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia. Today, the situation is much worse, as the entire fertilizer market is disrupted,” said Jorge Moreira da Silva to AFP.

“So if we do not quickly address the crisis at its source, we will have to manage the consequences through humanitarian aid.”

Jorge Moreira da Silva

via franceinfo

However, a large-scale food aid operation starting at the end of the year would likely cost several billion dollars. The easiest solution is to allow ships carrying fertilizers, ammonia, sulfur, and urea to pass, as Jorge Moreira da Silva points out that not hundreds of ships are needed. ‘We would need an average of five ships per day. It’s a simple logistical mechanism, and we have the experience. We can implement it in seven days. So, we are ready. What’s lacking is the political will,” he explains.

The UN acknowledges that all goods must be able to move freely, not just fertilizers but also oil. However, urgent action is necessary to prevent a massive food crisis. An additional 45 million people worldwide could be affected by acute food insecurity. Asia is mentioned, but Africa is particularly vulnerable, especially in the poorest countries in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, where planting begins in June with a very short window of opportunity.

Given the deadlines for shipping, May 15 is seen as a deadline by which fertilizers need to be loaded onto a ship to arrive on time. Otherwise, the consequences for this year’s crops will be irreversible. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), some crop yields will be halved this summer. To make matters worse, scientists warn of a potential super El Niño phenomenon this year with extreme heat and droughts.