War in Ukraine:

The horizon is clear. After months of Hungary blocking, European Union leaders have finally approved the €90 billion aid package for Ukraine and will celebrate the news with Volodymyr Zelensky at a European summit in Cyprus on Thursday evening. Europeans have also approved a 20th round of sanctions against Russia. “We arrive in Cyprus with good news,” said Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. “As Russia increases its aggression, Europe is increasing its support for Ukraine and its pressure on the Russian war economy,” she added.

To mark this long-awaited breakthrough, the Ukrainian president is arriving in Cyprus where he will meet with EU heads of state at the Ayia Napa Marina, a prestigious tourist site by the sea. On the plane to Nicosia, Volodymyr Zelensky expressed hope for an initial European payment “by the end of May or early June” to strengthen the Ukrainian army and “national arms production.” His visit to Cyprus is “symbolically important now that EU funds have been released to support Kiev in 2026 and 2027,” said a relieved European diplomat.

War in the Middle East on the agenda

The electoral defeat of Viktor Orban in Hungary quickly translated into the lifting of his veto against the aid to Ukraine at the European level. The resumption of Russian oil delivery to Budapest through a pipeline crossing Ukraine resolved the situation. EU officials can now breathe a sigh of relief after criticizing Viktor Orban’s behavior at the previous March summit in Brussels. Frustrated by this deadlock, the Ukrainian president himself made unkind remarks towards Europeans, even threatening the nationalist Hungarian Prime Minister. This time, the Cyprus summit will be held without Orban. Defeated by his rival Peter Magyar in the legislative elections, he is preparing to step down and has boycotted his last major European meeting after sixteen years in power.

Informal, the EU leaders’ meeting in Cyprus does not require major decisions. European heads of state and government are expected to focus on the war in the Middle East. On Friday, they will have a working lunch with several regional leaders: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, Syrian Ahmed al-Chareh, and Jordanian Crown Prince Hussein ben Abdallah.

Despite their limited leverage, Europeans praise “intensive dialogue” with the region’s states and aim to discuss “the situation in Lebanon and the talks between Israel and Lebanon,” according to an official. Coming together in Cyprus holds symbolic importance as NATO bases there were targeted by Iranian-made drones at the beginning of the conflict.

No major announcements

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked by Iran, the conflict has had heavy consequences on the European economy, with the cost of oil and gas procurement increasing by €24 billion in seven weeks. In all European countries, costly measures are being taken to support the most exposed sectors like heavy industry, agriculture, and fishing. The European Union is closely monitoring a potential kerosene shortage. Faced with the energy crisis, Brussels has increased recommendations to member states and called for accelerating the electrification of the continent.

However, the EU has not made any major announcements or taken out the checkbook. The finances of both the EU and member states, especially France, are not in the best shape. On the financial front, European countries will discuss the still sensitive discussions on the €2 trillion future European budget from 2028 to 2034 during the Cyprus summit. Negotiations are expected to be as challenging as always between Paris, advocating for more European investments, and Berlin, cautious in budget matters.

Without fanfare, EU officials dream of an agreement on the future budget by the end of the year. They fear paralysis during the long electoral sequence of 2027, with legislative elections expected in several member states and a presidential election in France, where the far-right threatens to cut the country’s contribution to the European budget if it comes to power.