The current state of financial markets is best described as a matter of geopolitics first, and then crypto.
Evidence is clear. Despite recent favorable regulatory developments related to the Clarity Act, bitcoin has shown little enthusiasm, trading around $77,200 – virtually unchanged over the past 24 hours and week.
Meanwhile, oil remains high around $100 and speculative capital flows into copper due to fears of a sulfur shortage. The link? Copper production heavily depends on sulfuric acid, which has been disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz.
Essentially, everything revolves around Hormuz, fuelling raw material flows and price hikes, feeding inflation fears, driving up bond yields, which supposedly weigh on cryptocurrency. American stocks, on the other hand, are near their historical highs, driven by optimism around AI.
Bitcoin is not at the heart of this geoeconomic revaluation linked to AI.
It is thus not surprising that American bitcoin spot ETFs continue to experience outflows, recording $1.15 billion this week after $1 billion last week, according to SoSoValue. The Coinbase premium, an indicator of American demand compared to the rest of the world, has hit monthly lows.
Analysts have repeatedly emphasized that these indicators require a marked improvement before a sustained recovery can take hold. The question is whether this will happen as markets remain focused on geopolitics and AI.
Meanwhile, certain sectors of the cryptocurrency market, notably on-chain perpetual contracts and tokens resistant to quantum computers, continue to show strength, supported by specific news and narratives, as discussed on Thursday. The token (NEAR) from the Layer-1 blockchain Near Protocol is the latest addition to this group, rising over 25% in the past 24 hours following an announcement of a major upgrade focused on automated scaling and quantum resilience.
On traditional markets, Nasdaq futures contracts have given up their early gains and are trading largely flat. Analysts remain generally optimistic about stocks following the latest earnings season. Stay vigilant.
Read more: For an analysis of today’s activity on altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of events this week, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.
What are the trends
Today’s signal
The RSI of HYPE indicates overbought conditions. (TradingView)
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of HYPE has exceeded the 70 level. While readings above 70 are commonly referred to as “overbought,” this interpretation is often deceptive.
The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. A reading above 70 simply signals strong upward momentum and suggests that the uptrend may still have room to continue. This does not automatically mean that the asset is overvalued or that an imminent reversal is expected, contrary to what is often suggested in popular narratives.
In strongly trending markets, the RSI can remain high for long periods without leading to significant pullbacks.
