Who are the winners and losers in a war-based economy? Profits are significant for those who benefit from a “systemic” conflict situation. The main beneficiaries are the technological defense industries, the oil sector, and the arms industry. But few mention the costs in terms of human lives, environment, fragility of international relations, and restrictions on individual freedoms. Interview. Roberto Paglialonga – Vatican City
War generates profits and considerable business opportunities, primarily for a handful of countries and certain economic sectors, not necessarily linked to the underground economy, who enjoy these benefits. The Financial Times highlighted how, despite the ongoing crisis in the Middle East in recent years – or perhaps because of it – global productive activities have continued to increase at a rate exceeding 3% annually. The economic rebound in times of armed conflicts or crises is no longer a mystery; today, fear has become a lucrative business around which a new global order is structured based on insecurity and instability. Peace, in itself, is no longer suitable.
“The new monarchy of fear”
Vittorio Pelligra, professor of economic policies and director of the Center for Behavioral and Statistical Sciences at the University of Cagliari, spoke about the “new monarchy of fear” in recent public interventions. The economic model of those involved in the techno-defense sector has profoundly changed, moving away from mere weapons production. The dominant criterion is now the “pre-emption war,” a preventive measure to prepare for potential threats, maintaining a state of constant danger.
The link between technology and weaponry is explicitly theorized. Technology is no longer a neutral force but a geopolitical one, used to defend the West against external threats. Today, it is algorithms, data, software, and AI that matter, not just states and armies.
“The surveillance capitalism”
This is the “surveillance capitalism,” denouncing the heightened surveillance of lives under a “Big Brother” gaze, leading to threats to individual liberties and privacy. The intertwining of technology and politics allows for consensus formation bypassing traditional procedures.
The benefits for the energy and oil sector
The energy sector, particularly raw materials and oil, benefits from a war economy. Companies like Vitol, Trafigura, Gunvor, and Mercuria Energy are making astronomical profits, with Brent oil prices constantly above $100 per barrel. The United States, Russia, Indonesia, and Norway are among the countries seeing significant profits.
The costs fall on various sectors, including the fragility of international relations, challenges in multilateral organizations, democracy, personal freedoms, and privacy. The possibility of consumer pressure on politicians and ethical investment choices is highlighted as potential solutions to mitigate the impacts of a war-based economy.
Ultimately, a shift towards protecting personal freedoms, justice, and the common good is essential to reclaim the rightful role of politics and not lose hope.
