The International Monetary Fund warns on Thursday, May 14, 2026, that an “unfavorable scenario” is looming for the global economy due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.
A decline in growth, rising inflation, and disruption of energy flows… As the conflict initiated on February 28 by the United States and Israel against Iran enters its fourth month of war, the IMF sounds the alarm, as reported by BFM Business on Thursday, May 12.
Concerns at present… If the projections released last April estimated global growth at 3.1% for 2026, the global organization already foresaw a risk of economic deterioration towards a more “unfavorable” scenario in case of continuation of the war. On Thursday, the IMF spokesperson, Julie Kozack, acknowledged that “we are heading towards the unfavorable scenario.”
Nevertheless, the representative believed that “expectations regarding inflation remain reasonably well-anchored and financial conditions remain accommodative.” Especially since the global economic forecasts will be updated by the IMF in July 2026, as mentioned by Le Parisien.
Among economic actors, it is a time for observation. If individuals and businesses change their habits in light of future inflation (reducing consumption, raising prices, reducing stocks, etc.), central banks could then adjust their key rates, mechanically reducing local and global economic activity.
Published on May 15 at 07:45, by Mina Peltier, 6Médias
