Middle East: Everyone says there are violations, but everyone also wants to stay below the threshold of total war, notes Djilali Benchabane, a geopolitical and strategy analyst.

Published on May 8, 2026 at 10:33, updated on May 8, 2026 at 10:34

Is the truce in Iran being jeopardized by the new exchanges of fire that took place last night between Washington and Tehran around the Strait of Hormuz? “Nobody wants to go further,” says Djilali Benchabane, guest of “La Matinale” this Friday, May 8, who emphasizes a “desire to test the opponent even more.”

Three American ships attacked in the Strait of Hormuz are still stranded this Friday morning, May 8. In response, the United States targeted Iranian military installations. But for Donald Trump, the ceasefire is still in effect, while Tehran accuses the American president of violating it. An incident described as a “small squabble” by the American president, who threatens violent reprisals. To assess this extremely tense situation in the strait, “La Matinale” welcomes Djilali Benchabane, analyst in geopolitics and strategy – director of the CEOS Strategy and Consulting firm.

“This text corresponds to a part of the transcription of the above interview. Click on the video to watch it in full.”

Djamel Mazi: The United Arab Emirates claim to be facing missile and drone attacks by activating their anti-aircraft defense. With these exchanges of fire last night between the United States and Iran, is the truce still in effect this morning?

Djilali Benchabane: It all depends on what we consider a truce. There is both the semantic dimension with what this truce really means, and then the operational reality. We are currently in an absurd situation where everyone says there are violations, but everyone also wants to stay below the threshold of total war. Nobody wants to go further, everyone is testing each other. Paradoxically, we are in this desire to test the opponent even more, as the negotiation phase is still ongoing. And ultimately, this kind of truce and rupture of truce will serve, in my opinion, throughout a negotiation process, if it is to succeed.

Anthony Bellanger: With a particularity this time: Saudi Arabia intervened two days ago, to explain to Donald Trump that it was out of the question for him to implement this operation “Project Freedom,” which aimed to remove Iran’s trump card, that is, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and to try to force it militarily if necessary. Why did Saudi Arabia intervene so strongly in the matter?

Because for Saudi Arabia, there is a first consequence, which tends to be downplayed, it is the economic aspect. For Saudi Arabia, it must be remembered that we are in an extremely sensitive phase of its economy transition. The longer this war continues, the more it jeopardizes this plan, which also potentially makes Saudi Arabia one of the driving forces behind Gulf States’ growth. And they know that, militarily speaking, the longer this conflict continues, the more instability will persist, and economic instability will seep into their perspective. For Saudi Arabia, this situation is untenable. There is no good military solution, there is a political solution to which they must quickly reach.

No military solution, yet Iran has just shown that when you are a country of 90 million people and have a world-class military force, as they have been able to challenge the United States, it counts in the region. And I think the discussions will not be quite the same after this war between the United States, Israel, and Iran compared to before. There would be a lot of things to negotiate in the region?

There will be a lot of things. For Iran, there is the question of reasserting its dominance over the Strait of Hormuz. They have realized that their geographic position has become the major strategic asset, more so than nuclear capabilities. Interestingly, today, nuclear issues have almost become secondary compared to the overall consequences of the Strait of Hormuz. For Iran, there is no question of backing down. In this escalation rhetoric, they demonstrate that they can be resilient and are ready, if necessary, to increase pressure further in relation to this exercise conducted by Washington.

Djamel Mazi: It’s the economic nuclear weapon, I was going to say, of Iran. As the Americans have also described it.

Not only an economic weapon, but it is above all a pressure lever that allows Iran to fit into this world reconfiguration, which ultimately is built around economic conflict. We had the war in Ukraine and its consequences, the tax war by Donald Trump, and ultimately Iran, through the control of maritime flows, opens up a new field.

Click on the video to watch the full interview.