An analyst of this conflict yesterday joked that Donald Trump had started with “furious climax,” the name of the operation against Iran, and that he risked ending with “futile failure.” The conflict is not quite over, there is no agreement yet, but it is likely approaching, and under conditions that are far, very far, from the initial goals of the United States and their Israeli allies.
So what happened? In a typical about-face, Donald Trump suspended his operation “Project Freedom,” which aimed to forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz. As we noted on Monday, the first day of this operation ended in failure: Iran demonstrated its ability to disrupt ships attempting to pass, as well as the Gulf countries.
The American president seems to be on the verge of concluding based on a single-page document, which would open a 30-day period to negotiate key issues such as nuclear, ballistic, and regional influence. Regardless of the outcome, and Tehran is negotiating hard for its signature on this document, it is a triple failure for Donald Trump.
The United States has not achieved any of its initial objectives in this war, starting with the regime change in Tehran that was mentioned before being obscured. Not only has the regime survived, but it is now led by even harder Revolutionary Guards, who have continued to suppress the population even during the war. How far away is Donald Trump’s cry during the January uprising, “help is on the way”! It never arrived.
Similarly on the nuclear front: Trump will do well if he obtains an agreement more or less equivalent to the 2015 one that he tore up during his first term.
The second failure is allowing Iran to demonstrate its power over the Strait of Hormuz, with a global economic impact: yet again, even if the previous status quo is restored, the threat will remain constant; and for the first time attacking its Arab neighbors who are allies of the United States: the regional balance will have to be renegotiated, especially with a Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates that are no longer getting along.
The third failure is that of American omnipotence. Donald Trump has sought since his return to the White House fifteen months ago, to project an image of an America without limits, breaking codes, and imposing an indisputable balance of power.
China has defied him and Donald Trump arrives in Beijing next week in a less solid position than expected; Europe has begun to say no to him on Greenland and then on his call to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz; and Iran has shown him that it knows how to play asymmetric warfare, when Donald Trump still believes that the strongest always wins.
This failure will weigh on the rest of his presidency, as it shows that one can resist the world’s top power, whether as an opponent of the United States like Iran, or as allies like the Europeans. Things are likely to be rocky in the coming months as Donald Trump will want to restore his authority. The Cubans are designated to serve as prey to restore Trump’s conquering image: they will be the sacrificial victims of a useless and failed war.
