The simulations by the World Bank show that real GDP could increase by 17% compared to the baseline scenario by 2035 and by nearly 24% by 2050.
Decryption: Through two reports focusing on growth, employment, and the private sector, the World Bank highlights a roadmap based on structural reforms and targeted policies to accelerate the country’s economic transformation. Morocco could generate 1.7 million more jobs by 2035 and increase its real GDP by over 20% above the reference level, but this potential will only materialize if an ambitious reform program is implemented. Two analytical reports, produced in close collaboration with the Moroccan government and released today by the World Bank Group, provide both evidence and a roadmap to make this transformation a reality. The goal is to identify structural changes that would allow Morocco to move towards transformative growth, articulating macroeconomic reforms and private investment opportunities in key sectors of the economy. This includes implementing structural reforms to deepen competition in markets, unleash private investment, and more broadly integrate women and youth into the formal economy.
Employment outlook by 2035: Regarding the report on growth and employment, it was designed as an analytical contribution to support Morocco in achieving the ambitions of its New Development Model (NDM) by formulating a coherent vision to modernize the Moroccan economy and society. The ambition is to double the GDP per capita by 2035, increase the female employment rate to 45%, and formalize 80% of jobs. Although Morocco has made determined progress by implementing major reforms in several areas, including social protection, governance of public enterprises (PEs), promoting private investment, improving the business climate and taxation, the World Bank believes that maintaining current trends will not be enough to achieve the trajectory envisaged by the NDM. The diagnosis presented in this report highlights a set of interconnected challenges that create a gap between the opportunities available and the population’s expectations. “Morocco has built a strong foundation, and with the recommendations of the Growth and Employment Report, the Kingdom can go even further, creating millions of jobs, deepening private investments, and creating real opportunities for women and youth. The World Bank Group is fully committed to this endeavor in Morocco,” said Ahmadou Moustapha Ndiaye, Division Director at the IBRD for the Maghreb and Malta. To bridge the gaps and put Morocco on a faster path towards its development goals, the World Bank proposes a series of recommendations centered around four mutually reinforcing axes: more efficient and competitive markets, more dynamic businesses, public investments with a stronger impact, and more inclusive labor markets. These reforms could lead to a 17% increase in real GDP by 2035 and nearly 24% by 2050, resulting in 1.7 million additional high-quality jobs by 2035 and 2.5 million by 2050, with wages 15% higher.
Four key sectors to boost private investment: In its second report, the World Bank conducts a Country Private Sector Diagnostic (CPSD) aiming to unlock private investment and create jobs through tailored public measures by identifying untapped private investment opportunities and related obstacles. The report highlights four sectors with high potential where reforms could trigger a significant influx of private investment in the medium term. These include centralized solar energy production, low-carbon textiles, argan-based cosmetics, and marine aquaculture. These sectors intersect energy transition programs, industrial modernization, and regional development in the country. Strengthening these common foundations would amplify the impact of sectoral reforms and further support Morocco’s green and competitive growth model. According to the World Bank, these sectors also benefit from preferential access to the European Union (EU) markets, representing an opportunity for all sectors and the entire economy, beyond just the textile sector, shaping demand in various value chains. “Morocco has the sectoral assets and the necessary reforming will to attract significantly larger private investments,” emphasized Cheick-Oumar Sylla, Division Director at IFC for North Africa and the Horn of Africa. “The country is ready to shift into high gear, and this diagnosis highlights concrete opportunities to mobilize private investments equivalent to about 4% of GDP.” The World Bank describes specific measures the government can take to address these bottlenecks, such as clarifying specific regulations, simplifying and digitizing authorization processes, improving access to land and green energy, and strengthening standards and traceability systems. Once implemented, these measures could unlock around $7.4 billion in private investments and support the creation of over 166,000 jobs in the four examined sub-sectors over the next five to ten years.
