“Adversary of sanctions against Russia”, “pro-Kremlin”, “Eurosceptic”, “favorable to Moscow”: this is how Western analysts see Rumen Radev, without considering him the new Orban of the EU, pointing out that Rumen Radev does not question Bulgaria’s place in the EU and NATO.
However, they argue that while he was president, Rumen Radev avoided criticizing the war being waged by Russia in Ukraine, criticized the EU sanctions against Moscow, and judged that Bulgaria’s adoption of the euro without a referendum was a bad idea.
“There is no room for illusions and chaotic actions in this increasingly worrying, unpredictable, and dangerous world,” emphasized Radev in his campaign, adding that our country must work to strengthen our defense capabilities and the alliances to which we belong:
But this is not just about loyalty, it also requires competence and willingness to defend our national interest within these alliances because if we want these alliances to be strong, the countries comprising them must also be strong, said the former president and current leader of “Progressive Bulgaria,” who won an absolute majority in the new parliament.
Rumen Radev avoids direct confrontations with the West. After his victory in the elections on April 19, he emphasized in front of foreign media the importance of critical thinking and pragmatism in Europe:
Bulgaria will make efforts to continue on its European path. A strong Bulgaria in a strong Europe requires critical thinking, pragmatism because Europe has become a victim of its ambition to be a moral leader in a ruleless world.
Radev urges Ukraine to seek peace, does not support sending weapons to Kiev, and states that his declaration that “Crimea is Russian” only acknowledges a strategic reality.
Our main goal is to preserve peace and ensure that Bulgaria is not in any way drawn into the armed conflicts around us. We did not provoke these wars, so we should not have to pay for them. Not a penny should come from us to fuel wars; on the contrary, our money should stay here for our retirees, for our children. That is our goal, declared Rumen Radev at an electoral meeting in early April.
Analysts do not expect Rumen Radev to question the adoption of the euro or EU funding flows for Bulgaria, nor to block EU decisions.
The EU institutions responded politely to Rumen Radev’s victory and expressed readiness for fruitful cooperation with this new political actor in Europe. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, refrained from discussing expectations or fears of a potential change in Bulgaria’s foreign policy towards Ukraine after the electoral victory of “Progressive Bulgaria,” waiting for the new Bulgarian government to be formed before passing judgment.
The foreign policy profile of the future government of Rumen Radev will align with the profile of the voters who voted for “Progressive Bulgaria,” according to Maria Simionova, director of the UE Foreign Affairs Council’s office in Sofia. She believes that Radev succeeded in attracting voters from all other parties: moderate pro-Russians, moderate pro-Europeans, and eurozone skeptics:
This voter profile will limit Rumen Radev in terms of radical decisions or policies. Bulgaria under Rumen Radev will maintain its pro-European and pro-NATO stance but with more criticism towards decisions made in international institutions and organizations, more directed towards its national audience than European leaders, said Maria Simionova, adding:
I think it would be exaggerated to expect Bulgaria to become the country that blocks EU decisions. If Rumen Radev opts for more extreme positions within the EU, he will find himself in a quite unpleasant situation. He is a pragmatic politician who understands the risk posed by such a position of Bulgaria in the EU, especially since Bulgaria still heavily relies on EU funding, especially in a situation of soaring prices here.
What are the important positions on foreign policy that our new executive must formulate to Europe and the rest of the world?
I will start by mentioning a domestic policy issue, but one that is directly related to Bulgaria’s positioning in Europe: the reform of our institutions. This is related to the rule of law, the fight against corruption. We cannot enforce decisions in foreign policy if our partners and allies are not certain that our institutions are healthy and cannot succumb to external influences, to hybrid attacks. I think it is in Bulgaria’s interest to be more active, especially in the Black Sea region. The EU is a relatively new player in this region and expects Bulgaria and Romania to propose initiatives. We can also be more engaged in EU enlargement, Maria Simionova concluded.
