Japan: a new strategic player in the Indo

In 2026, Japan will update its national security strategy, last revised in December 2022. The regional security context has further deteriorated for Tokyo, facing a triple authoritarian and nuclear front with deepening solidarity, raising concerns about coordination with dramatic implications for the archipelago.

At the same time, the underlying trend of the United States focusing more narrowly on national interests is growing. The transactional and cynical approach of the second Trump administration is prompting Tokyo to increase investments in defense capabilities to enhance its contribution to the security alliance with the U.S. and rebalance roles within it.

This effort includes resolute steps to diversify security partners and maintain conditions for a free and open Indo-Pacific space. Beyond self-defense, Japan has become a security provider in Asia and a key strategic partner, including for Europeans.

The Threat of Unprecedented Conflict

Tensions are escalating between Japan and its Chinese, Russian, and North Korean neighbors as the war in Ukraine stirs fears of open conflict erupting in Asia.

China, Top Risk

China, threatening the archipelago’s territorial integrity, is Japan’s primary security risk. Chinese vessels have been patrolling the waters near the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea since 2012, and now do so almost constantly, challenging Japan’s control over the disputed islands they claim. These incidents, led by coast guard or fishermen rather than the Chinese military, employ a “grey zone tactic,” hard to contain without risking military escalation. This erosion strategy of the status quo includes regular naval and aerial incursions, exerting constant pressure on the Japanese Self-Defense Forces.

In 2000, Japan and China had equivalent defense budgets, but by 2020, Beijing was investing four times more than Tokyo in defense, fundamentally altering the balance of power and Japan’s deterrence capacity. The 2022 National Security Strategy classifies China as a “strategic challenge without precedent.”

In 2024 and 2025, the increased Chinese naval and aerial activities in the Pacific saw more frequent passages through the Soya (or La Pérouse), Tsugaru, Miyako, and Tsushima straits, surrounding the Japanese archipelago. Provocations intensified with intrusions into Japanese maritime and aerial spaces in August 2024, the first passage of a Chinese aircraft carrier between Yonaguni and Iriomote, buoy installation in Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in November 2024, and the unprecedented deployment of two Chinese aircraft carriers in the Pacific in June 2025.

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>> For the full article, refer to the April-May 2026 issue of Questions Internationales magazine.