Surprising images emerge: a column of vehicles carrying Russian soldiers leaves the city of Kidal in northern Mali yesterday morning, a retreat without firing a single shot. The new masters of the city are Tuareg rebels allied with jihadists.
This Russian retreat is all the more significant as, the day before, jihadists from the Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims, the GSIM, claimed simultaneous attacks in several parts of the country, including Bamako, the capital. In their statement, they asked the Russians not to be alarmed in order to preserve any future cooperation.
Indeed, the 2500 Russian military personnel present in Mali, members of the Africa Corps, the organization that succeeded the Wagner Group, remained passive while the regime in Bamako faced its worst security crisis since taking power five years ago. A setback for the Malian coup leaders who had ousted the former colonizer, France, in 2022, and a real failure for Russia, initially welcomed as saviors.
The Malian regime has certainly suffered severe blows
The powerful Minister of Defense was killed on Saturday in the attack on his residence, with jihadists and rebels simultaneously attacking several regions without being repelled, and it seems they have been able to expand their control over large parts of the country.
The capture of Kidal is highly symbolic. This stronghold of the Tuareg rebellion was reconquered in 2023 by the Malian army supported by the Russians, after eleven years in the hands of Azawad supporters, the name given by the rebels to their region. This victory, achieved shortly after the departure of the French and the United Nations force, strengthened the prestige of Colonel Assimi Goïta, the junta leader.
Three years later, this strategy is failing
The confiscation of power, with the dissolution of parties and the appointment of the head of state without elections, is not well received by part of the population, often caught between two fires. A few months ago, Bamako was under a real siege that prevented fuel from arriving from neighboring countries. While it is difficult to predict if the Malian power can fall, it is certainly in a precarious position.
The risk is twofold: first for Mali, which risks being fragmented between Tuareg separatists in the north and the various jihadist groups vying for territory. And for the region, as the GSIM, operating in Mali, is an Al Qaeda-affiliated group with regional ambitions. Niger and Burkina Faso, members of the Sahel States Alliance along with Mali, would be targeted in turn if Bamako falls. And beyond, neighboring countries are already threatened by jihadist incursions.
This catastrophic situation is the epilogue of more than a decade of failure
Since France intervened in 2014 to save Bamako from a jihadist column, the French counteroffensive allowed Mali to reclaim the north that had eluded it.
But the follow-up was not up to the measure of this initial success, causing growing frustration that led to military coups, the departure of the French, replaced by the Russians. Four years later, it is once again a failure, much to the detriment of the populations.
