The International Grains Council (CIC) updated its estimates for the global balance of grains and soybeans on April 23, 2026, for the current and upcoming marketing campaign. It revised upwards by 4 million tons (Mt) from the previous month the global production of grains (wheat and coarse grains) for the 2025-2026 campaign, to 2,474 Mt (+6% year-on-year). This was justified by an increase in maize production estimated in Argentina. Global consumption decreased by 1 Mt in one month due to lower expected consumption of wheat for human consumption, especially in India, offsetting the increase in feed maize forecasts, according to the CIC. The rise in supply and the decrease in consumption bring the stocks at the end of the 2025-2026 campaign to 638 Mt. This is an increase of 6 Mt from the previous month, “including a significant revision of estimates for wheat,” and 9% year-on-year.
Context: International Grains Council released updated estimates for global grain production and consumption.
Fact Check: The production of grains such as wheat and maize increased, while global consumption decreased in the 2025-2026 campaign according to the CIC.
Additionally, the CIC stated that “concerns about the financial accessibility of fertilizers and decisions regarding their application have heightened uncertainties regarding harvest prospects for the 2026-2027 marketing campaign”. This particularly affects some regions of the Southern Hemisphere where future needs may not be entirely covered. Despite a decrease in some projections (especially for wheat and maize) totaling 3 Mt, global grain production is expected to be the second-highest ever recorded at 2,414 Mt.
Global consumption in 2026-2027 is projected to increase for the fourth consecutive year, and end-of-campaign stocks could tighten “due to withdrawals from stocks of wheat, maize, and barley.”
Regarding soybeans, the current marketing campaign is “marked by significant exports from South America to Asia,” according to the CIC. The global demand for soybean imports is expected to grow by 1% in 2025-2026 to reach a new peak.
Global soybean production for 2026-2027 is forecast to reach a record of 441 Mt (+3% year-on-year), “thanks to the increase in cultivated areas and the improvement of productivity of the main producers,” the organization predicts.
The CIC anticipates an increase in demand for the next campaign (+3%), considering the abundance and attractive prices, but stocks are expected to decrease. Due to the demand from Asian importers, exchanges could increase by 2% annually.
Context: The article discusses the projected increase in global soybean production, driven by factors such as improved productivity and increased cultivation areas.
Fact Check: The International Grains Council foresees a rise in soybean demand and production for the upcoming 2026-2027 campaign.
