Carried by the persistent strength of the technology sector, the Paris Stock Exchange ended the week in positive territory, supported by the new high reached by the Nasdaq Composite. The gradual easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has favored a more constructive investment climate, prompting a selective return of flows to risky assets, with artificial intelligence remaining at the heart of preferred themes. An additional positive signal for the markets came from the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a major blockade for over a month, now authorized for commercial ships as part of the ongoing ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Although the reopening is temporary and subject to strict conditions imposed by Iranian authorities, this event has helped dispel some of the geopolitical concerns and has contributed to restoring investor confidence. However, the session was nevertheless marked by the sharp drop of Alstom (-27.15% to 16.64), sanctioned after announcing margin and cash generation targets that are now out of reach for the 2025-2026 fiscal year, reviving concerns about the group’s operational visibility. Markets, however, remain attentive to the developments in discussions between the United States and Iran, especially after Donald Trump’s statements about the possibility of a temporary ceasefire. Meanwhile, the announcement of a truce between Israel and Lebanon, confirmed by Benyamin Netanyahu, has strengthened market sentiment, although investors await more tangible progress, particularly regarding the sustainable stability of the Strait of Hormuz, before considering a more significant exposure to stocks.
On the May future
The resistance levels are: 8343 then 8466 and 8912 or 8434.
The support levels are: 8240 then 8208 and 8190 or 8089.5 then 8066 and 8048.5 or 8019.5 then 7960 and 7843.5 or 7768.5 then 7676 and 7512.5 then 6999 or 6467.
Intraday, the trend is bullish above 7960.
Graphically, the Future CAC 40 (cf. chart at 2 p.m.) has managed, at this stage, to preserve the long-term uptrend channel base located at 8,174 points, a level that the index has reintegrated after beginning a rebound of over 10% since March 23. This threshold is all the more strategic as it coincides with the upward oblique connecting points 1 and 3 of the Wolfe wave reversal structure, thus reinforcing the importance of this area as a major technical pivot. As long as this level remains preserved at the close, the constructive momentum would remain intact, with the intermediate resistance located at 8,466 points in sight, and then, in extension, the upper limit of the bullish channel positioned at 8,707 points, constituting the major medium-term technical objective.
Conversely, a break below 8,174 points, corresponding to our intraday alert, would weaken the current configuration and favor the resumption of the corrective movement towards the short-term bullish reactivation level located at 7,960 points. A rebound on this intermediate support, or a limited downward extension aimed at filling the gap located at 7,935.5 points, would not question the ongoing recovery phase. On the other hand, breaking through this zone would pave the way for a further decline towards the theoretical target of the Wolfe wave located at 7,641 points, with a potential extension towards 7,512.5 points. An occasional dip below this area would be tolerated, but a close below would trigger a more marked retreat towards the neckline of the triple weekly summit reversal figure, positioned at 6,999 points.
In conclusion, in a context characterized by limited visibility and the formation of technical reversal structures, we continue to adopt a cautious approach by gradually taking profits within the Dynamic and Investor portfolios. This approach aims to secure part of the recent gains while maintaining operational flexibility in an environment that is still uncertain. At the same time, we maintain a selective exposure by continuing to position ourselves on stocks delivering constructive technical signals, as the invalidation of reversal patterns cannot be excluded. Such a scenario would then favor the continuation of the recovery movement, justifying the maintenance of an opportunistic and disciplined allocation.
