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Global markets remain dependent on geopolitical situation

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Washington – Global stock markets remained focused on developments in the peace negotiations in the Middle East on Thursday, while also digesting a new wave of corporate earnings.

In Europe, Paris lost 0.14% and Milan 0.27%. London gained 0.29% and Frankfurt 0.36%. In Zurich, the SMI fell 0.35%.

In New York, for the second consecutive session, the Nasdaq and the broader S&P 500 index hit record highs at the close, gaining 0.36% to 24,102.70 points and 0.26% to 7,041.28 points respectively. The Dow Jones rose by 0.24%.

On Wall Street, Patrick O’Hare from Briefing.com noted, “the momentum is building,” as investors drive the movement to see how far it can go.

According to analysts, Wall Street is benefitting from “constructive signals” regarding the conflict in the Middle East, notably through recent comments made by the American president.

Donald Trump stated on Thursday that Iran had agreed to surrender its enriched uranium, one of its requirements for a deal with Tehran, and announced a ceasefire in the Lebanese front of the conflict.

“The Iranians have agreed to give us back the nuclear dust,” the president told reporters at the White House, using his term for enriched uranium stocks, adding, “There’s a very good chance that we will reach an agreement.”

The Islamic Republic has not immediately confirmed this information, as negotiations continue under the auspices of Pakistan to arrange a second round of talks after the failure of the first in Islamabad last weekend.

– Oil Prices Rise –

“While caution remains regarding the situation in the Middle East,” Jose Torres from Interactive Brokers noted the further increase in oil prices on Thursday.

After starting fairly stable, the price of a barrel of Brent crude for June delivery eventually rose by 4.70% to $99.39. Its American counterpart, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for May delivery, increased by 3.72% to $94.69.

Given that the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows, remains locked by Tehran, Schork Group’s Stephen Schork remarked that “physical oil prices remain extremely high.”

Even with barrels diverted through pipelines and the few ships passing through Hormuz, the loss of Gulf oil has reached “about 13 million barrels per day,” according to ING.

“If the war were to intensify again and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed for several months, prices would soar sharply again,” warned analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen from Global Risk Management.

– Barry Callebaut Falls in Zurich, Tesco Rises in London –

Another area of market focus is the ongoing earnings season on both sides of the Atlantic.

In Zurich, cocoa supplier Barry Callebaut plummeted over 15% after reporting lower-than-expected results for the first half and revising its goals for the entire fiscal year due to the rapid decline in cocoa prices.

In London, Tesco, the leading British supermarket chain, announced a profit increase for its 2025-2026 fiscal year but expressed concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict on its current fiscal year results. Its shares rose by 4.13%.

In Paris, French spirits group Pernod Ricard lost some ground (-0.54%) due to results affected by the conflict in the Middle East and ongoing negotiations for a merger with American company Brown-Forman, owner of Jack Daniel’s whiskey.

On Wall Street, American snack and beverage giant PepsiCo (+2.28%) reported significantly higher results for the first quarter, driven by strong beverage sales in its main market, North America.