Egyptian diplomacy has mobilized to mitigate the consequences of the Iran-Israel-US conflict, but without being able to influence its allies: Cairo is a powerless spectator caught in two strategic dependencies – financial dependence on the Gulf and alliances with Israel and the United States, which are turning against it.
The Egyptian economy is hit hard: revenues from the Suez Canal are down, Israeli gas deliveries suspended, tourism declining, pound depreciating – all impacting a fragile economy dependent on the remittances of migrant workers in the Gulf.
In the long term, the tacit alignment with Israel is becoming increasingly difficult to defend. While a sudden change of alliance seems unrealistic, a shift is underway – Egypt is diversifying its partnerships with Europe, Russia, and China in a context where regional warfare undermines the regime’s legitimacy.
This information was contributed by Baudouin Long, a doctor in sociology and associated researcher at the University of Paris-1 Panthéon Sorbonne.
In the face of a war against Iran that is disrupting regional balances and the global economy, Egypt under El-Sissi, dependent on Gulf funding and alliances with Israel and the United States, finds itself in a strategic impasse. The country, a powerless observer of a regional war triggered by its allies, is a collateral victim of the conflict. Beyond this, Egypt is confronted with a Middle East reshaping strategy that it has much to fear, driven by predatory actors causing chaos, on which it relies, and against which its options are limited.
Egypt is one of the few countries in the region that has not been involved in the war unleashed by Israel and the United States against Iran on February 28, 2026. However, the country is still significantly affected by the conflict. Egyptian diplomacy has been proactive, but for Cairo, the aim is not so much to act as a mediator opportunistically but to mitigate the impact of a war that once again highlights the fragility of the Egyptian balance on the regional scene. The economic consequences underline Egypt’s financial and energy dependency, while the war also exposes the strategic divergences and powerlessness of Cairo against predatory allies.
The Egyptian response to the conflict has focused on three objectives: preventing escalation, aligning with Arab states, and discreetly distancing from the Israeli-American strategy. Condemning Iranian strikes on Gulf countries, advocating de-escalation, and first supporting Arab countries, Cairo has asserted its strategic regional priorities through alliances with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Diplomatic efforts include phone exchanges, regional tours by the Egyptian Foreign Minister, and brief bilateral visits by Abdel Fattah El-Sissi to the UAE and Qatar.
Statements on “common security” were not accompanied by concrete military support. Egypt maintains that the Gulf countries have been struck by a war that is not theirs. Cairo has opted for a diplomatic approach, engaging in discussions with Iranian leaders through Pakistan. However, Egypt was more focused on Islamabad for mediation, as evidenced by the participation of Egyptian officials in a quadripartite meeting in Pakistan involving Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Regarding Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, Egypt’s tone stiffened. The Egyptian Minister in Beirut called for negotiations and condemned “Israeli violations against Lebanon’s security, sovereignty, and stability.” A public statement by President El-Sissi on March 30, imploring President Trump to end the war, stood out as a rare gesture, reminiscent of his 2025 condemnations of Israeli actions in Gaza.
Egypt’s diplomatic response reflects concern about the war’s implications and reveals Cairo’s unease, if not disapproval, towards Tel Aviv and Washington. The conflict highlights two strategic dependencies that the war sheds light on: financial dependence on Gulf capital and the strategic relationship with Israel and the United States, which, under Trump and Netanyahu, weaken Egypt.
The war’s repercussions were immediate and severe for the Egyptian economy, already reeling from the impact of a month-long conflict – energy pressures, pound depreciation, price hikes, and challenges for the private sector. The Egyptians bear the brunt of the consequences, which could worsen with a potential new monetary shock.
At a regional level, the conflict with Iran shattered the illusion of American protection in the Gulf and opened a realm of uncertainty regarding the future Middle Eastern security architecture. The conflict with Iran may not necessarily have immediate political stability repercussions, but in the long run, the acceptance of normalization with Israel will have to overcome the people’s memories, possibly more enduring than any of the Arab autocracies attempting to get closer to Israel.
