lediplomate.media – printed on 16/04/2026
By Giuseppe Gagliano, President of the Centro Studi Strategici Carlo De Cristoforis (Como, Italy)
Real winner of the Middle Eastern confrontation is not the one on the stage
While international attention remains focused on the axis formed by the United States, Israel, and Iran, the most important fact may go almost unnoticed. The main beneficiary of this new phase of tensions is not one of the direct protagonists of the crisis, but Russia. Once again, Moscow is reaping the strategic, economic, and geopolitical dividends of chaos created by others.
Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, soaring energy prices, and fear of conflict escalation have had an immediate effect: oil is once again not just a commodity but a weapon of power. And when oil becomes a power, Russia inevitably returns to the center stage. The projected April revenues, amounting to $9 billion compared to $4.2 billion in March, speak louder than any political statement about what is actually happening: in just one month, Russian oil revenues have nearly doubled.
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Sanctions face the wall of reality
For over two years, the West has painted a picture of a Russia close to collapse, suffocated by sanctions, isolated from markets, gradually reduced to economic impotence. But reality, as often happens, has contradicted propaganda. Moscow not only managed to avoid being expelled from the global energy system but also demonstrated its ability to transform pressure into a lever for adaptation and strengthening.
The Middle Eastern crisis reveals the fragility of Western sanctions. When markets ignite, when systemic risks increase, and when energy prices threaten to overwhelm debt-laden and inflationary economies, political principles give way to material necessity. Thus, Washington, to prevent a global crisis, is forced to partially ease the pressure. This is a crucial turning point, certifying an essential fact: it is no longer sanctions setting the pace of events, but the real availability of resources.
Putin and strategic patience
Vladimir Putin once again shows the coherence of a strategy based on endurance, resilience, and the centrality of raw materials. Instead of seeking international approval, the Kremlin has focused on building economic resistance capable of absorbing shocks, while waiting for its adversaries to face the limits of their own choices. And that is exactly what is happening.
Russia understood before many others that the world cannot be governed solely by finance, sanctions, or technological superiority. At the core of power lies energy, logistic corridors, natural resources, and the ability to ensure supplies in times of crisis. Here is where Moscow retains its weight, and where the West discovers it cannot easily replace it.
An economic victory that becomes geopolitical
The increase in oil revenues is not just an accounting success. It is a geopolitical victory. Every additional dollar earned by Russia translates into an increased capacity to support its international projection, fund public spending, strengthen ties with Asian partners, and enhance autonomy from the West. It is not just money—it is strategic freedom.
In this sense, the Hormuz crisis acts as a multiplier of Russian power. The more the Middle East becomes tense, the more the global energy market seeks stability. And the more this search for stability intensifies, the more Russia regains its centrality. The paradox is clear: those who wanted to bend Moscow now find themselves facing the return of its indispensable character.
Who truly controls
The decisive question at this stage is not whether sanctions are fair or unfair. The real question is another: who actually controls the global game? The powers imposing economic punishments or those holding the resources without which the system would collapse?
The answer, at least at this phase, seems to emerge with stark clarity. Grand moral and political declarations shatter against the concrete reality of energy needs. Advanced economies can strike, threaten, isolate, but if they do not control the real sources of power, they remain vulnerable. Moscow knows this, and that is precisely why it appears today as the silent guest of every crisis: less visible than others but often more decisive than all.
The decline of the Western narrative
This is how the Western narrative of Russian isolation begins to crack. Not because Moscow has definitively won, but because every day the real world reminds us that strength is not only measured in immediate alliances or packages of sanctions. It is measured in the ability to remain necessary. And Russia, whether one likes it or not, remains necessary.
The point is not to celebrate Moscow, but to understand that the international order still rests on the geography of resources, not on ideological illusions. As long as oil, gas, and raw materials continue to determine deep power balances, those who control them will always have a decisive advantage. And that is precisely where Russia, once again, shows that it understands the world better than its adversaries.
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