The increasing power of the American and Israeli air and naval capabilities is clearly visible, but concrete operational options remain difficult to formalize due to structural constraints within the Iranian center. The geography of the country severely limits the range of decisive operations possible, and political limitations further complicate the situation. The current scenario most likely involves a combination of special operations and airstrikes directed primarily against Iranian ballistic missile reserves and infrastructures.
The main challenge lies in the impossibility of achieving a regime change through external military action alone. The US and Israel may face a better-prepared Iranian defense, but their intelligence and planning systems are robust enough to avoid elementary errors. The fundamental strategic issue is the inability to bring about a regime change solely through military action, as exemplified by the unsuccessful “Midnight Hammer” operation.
Overall, while the US and Israel have the means to degrade Iranian military capabilities tactically, achieving the desired strategic transformation remains elusive through air power and special operations alone. The stability of the regime in Iran hinges on its ability to sustain a war within its own society. A military campaign against Iran may be feasible from a military standpoint, but politically inconclusive.
The uncertainty lies in the real level of loyalty among the base soldiers of the Revolutionary Guards. If their loyalty were to waver, the entire system could quickly become vulnerable. However, there are currently no credible indicators suggesting a rupture at this level. The regime’s stability seems to rely on its capacity to engage in a prolonged war against its own society, making a military campaign against Iran feasible but politically indecisive.
The US and Israel have the means to significantly degrade Iranian military capabilities and have tactical effects, but the strategic transformation sought—whether a lasting capitulation or regime change—remains beyond reach solely through air power and special operations.
