The United States and Iran are close to an agreement to end the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. After threatening to resume hostilities and break the ceasefire in place since April 7, Donald Trump now seems to favor diplomacy, while still hinting at the risk of escalation if Iran does not accept a negotiated solution. The American president states that negotiations with Iran are “constructive,” but that “both parties must take their time and find the right agreement.”
Tehran and Washington today have a common interest in ending the war that began on February 28. Even though the regime has not collapsed, Iran risks being strangled by the maritime blockade preventing it from selling its oil, its main financial resource. The Iranian state’s coffers will soon be empty, despite the country having the equivalent of three months’ worth of oil exports on tankers waiting at sea. Donald Trump delayed cutting off Iran’s oil supply, allowing Iranian oil to flood the market out of fear of further skyrocketing oil prices.
Risk of Sanctions at the Ballot Box President Trump is also under pressure less than six months before the midterm elections in the United States. The war in the Middle East is unpopular, even among Republicans. The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows, has led to a spike in fuel prices in the United States, risking a backlash at the ballot box.
“Iran has shown that Trump achieves less results through threat and coercion than through diplomacy,” explains Omid Memarian, an analyst with Dawn, an American think tank. “For both sides, negotiations are becoming inevitable due to the exorbitant cost of continuing the conflict,” he adds. According to the American website Axios, the United States and Iran are finalizing a 60-day agreement protocol that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The semi-official Iranian press agency Tasnim, which is close to the Revolutionary Guards, announces the possibility of restoring traffic in the strait to pre-war levels within a month.
Thawing of Iranian Assets? As part of the agreement, the United States would lift the naval blockade imposed on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports. Iran would also receive sanctions relief to sell its oil. According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the agreement protocol postpones the delicate issue of the Iranian nuclear program to a later date. Subsequent discussions will focus on Iran’s commitment not to enrich uranium to a level suitable for a nuclear bomb and to dispose of its 400 kilograms of enriched uranium at 60%.
The United States could be prepared to unblock $25 billion of Iranian assets frozen abroad if Iran shows goodwill. The future of the Iranian nuclear program is a potential stumbling block for the agreement as Tehran insists on retaining enrichment capabilities for civilian purposes. In 2015, the Tehran regime transferred almost all of its enriched uranium stock to Russia as part of the Vienna agreement signed under Barack Obama, and denounced by Donald Trump in 2018. In recent days, Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed readiness to take back the nuclear fuel that Iran would agree to dispose of.
