The war in Iran and oil at 100 dollars explode EV sales in Europe: +51% in March. Chinese brands BYD, Leapmotor, and Xpeng are the big winners.
The war in Iran has done what subsidies and regulations failed to sustain: massively transition European motorists to electric vehicles. Since the American-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, the price of oil per barrel has crossed the $100 mark for the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At the pump, the pain was immediate. In the showrooms, the response was just as strong.
Historic figures in March and April The registrations of 100% electric vehicles soared by 51% in March 2026 in 14 key markets of the EU and EFTA, with over 224,000 new electric cars registered in a single month, accounting for 22% of all new car sales. Throughout the first quarter, Europe saw over 500,000 new electric vehicles, a 33.5% increase from the same period last year. In April, the trend continued with a 34% year-on-year increase, according to exclusive data provided to Reuters by the research groups New Automotive and E-Mobility Europe, covering 16 markets representing over 80% of EU and EFTA automotive sales.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iranian conflict, threatening about a fifth of global oil supply, acted as a trigger. The International Energy Agency called it the biggest security challenge in global energy history. For European drivers, the financial equation became hard to ignore: according to a study by the organization Transport & Environment, the monthly cost of using a gasoline car now stands at 142 euros compared to 65 euros for an electric vehicle, a 77 euro difference directly linked to the crisis.
Chinese brands, big winners of the oil shock The disruption primarily benefits Chinese manufacturers, whose more affordable models address a demand for a quick and cost-effective alternative. On the Carwow platform, purchase requests for BYD increased by 25,000% in the first quarter. Leapmotor saw a 436% increase, and Xpeng a 153% increase. BYD registrations in Germany jumped by 327% in March, taking its market share to 1.2% in the leading European car market. The brand goes further with a Dolphin G priced at 20,000 euros tailored exclusively for Europe, expected in June, positioned directly against the Renault Clio and Toyota Yaris.
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This breakthrough occurs in a particularly favorable context: European Tesla registrations plummeted, partly due to Elon Musk’s political activities leading to boycotts in several countries. The space thus freed up is largely occupied by Chinese manufacturers. The new MG4, equipped with a semi-solid battery and expected to be priced below 20,000 euros in Europe, illustrates this strategy of pricing disruption.
European manufacturers catching up with the momentum European brands also benefit from the wave, albeit to a lesser extent. Renault reports that 50% of its UK registrations in April were electric vehicles, with online requests increasing by 48% since the start of the war. The Renault 5 became the best-selling electric vehicle in Great Britain this month, according to The Next Web.
Volvo notes an increase in orders, particularly for its EX30, with Commercial Director Erik Severinson noting that customers are particularly price-sensitive due to oil prices. At Seat/Cupra, General Manager Markus Haupt revealed to Reuters that German sales teams now receive nearly 60% of orders for electric vehicles, well above the planned production quota of 25%. Skoda, on its part, aims to meet this demand with its Epiq, an electric SUV priced similarly to a thermal equivalent, around 23,000 euros after incentives.
Will the shock be sustainable? The question haunting the sector is the sustainability of the movement. The previous oil shock of 2022, caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, led to a temporary interest in electric vehicles before dissipating with falling fuel prices. Several factors suggest a more lasting transformation this time: the charging infrastructure is much more developed, Chinese models have made electric cars significantly more affordable, and European emissions regulations are further tightening in 2027. For European manufacturers, the moment is paradoxical: the demand they spent billions to build is finally here, but it is BYD, Leapmotor, and Xpeng who are reaping the most spectacular rewards.
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