For several months, the Middle East has been undergoing a major strategic rearrangement. The Israeli-American offensive against Iran has deeply disrupted regional balances: tensions in the Gulf, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cross-border strikes, fragility of ceasefires, and the resurgence of direct confrontation logic among regional powers.
Behind this highly publicized war, another crisis, less visible in Europe, is rapidly worsening: the one between Pakistan and the Taliban-led Afghanistan. The situation is said to be nearing an “open war” between Islamabad and Kabul. Border clashes are increasing, as are airstrikes, while Pakistan accuses Afghan Taliban of harboring fighters from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), responsible for deadly attacks in Pakistani territory. Paradoxically, Islamabad is trying to present itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran. Quietly supported by Saudi Arabia, close to the United States but constrained by its proximity to Iran, Pakistan aims to turn extreme internal vulnerability into diplomatic opportunity, under the watchful eye of New Delhi which is increasingly engaging with Kabul to encircle its historical rival.
Behind the Middle East crises looms a new battle for influence in South Asia, involving India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, China, and the Gulf monarchies. Are we witnessing a regionalization of the Middle Eastern conflict reaching the doors of South Asia? Is the risk of a generalized regional flare-up being underestimated today?
Invited guests:
- Olivier Weber, writer and senior reporter of “Des Anges et des ogres” recently published by Calmann-Lévy
- Jean-Luc Racine, senior research director at CNRS and senior researcher at the think tank Asia Centre
