Invited guests:
- Marc Julienne, Director of the Asia Center at Ifri, and author of a briefing entitled: “US Taiwan Policy Beyond Donald Trump,” published in English in February 2026.
- Agatha Kratz regularly publishes notes on the Rhodium Group website. The most recent one is titled “Closer to Home: Testing the Western Hemisphere’s Diversification Potential,” published in February 2026.
- Mathieu Duchâtel released a note in April 2026 titled “EU-Taiwan Relations and Semiconductors: Building Lasting Confidence,” available on the Institut Montaigne website.
- Robin Niblett is the author of the book “China – United States: The New Cold War,” which was translated into French by Dunod editions in February 2026.
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”: this formula attributed to Napoleon during the Battle of Austerlitz, Xi Jinping has probably been savoring it for over two months, since Donald Trump refocused most of his military and diplomatic efforts on the Middle East. Still embroiled in the Strait of Hormuz, the American President must travel to Beijing next Thursday for a summit that both leaders clearly attach significant importance to.
Initially postponed during the US bombings on Iran, the meeting is expected to decide whether or not to de-escalate the commercial front between the world’s top two economies, as they both face structural challenges.
Following China’s victory in last year’s trade war due to embargo measures on its rare earth minerals, crucial for the US defense industry, an exchange of goodwill is likely to ease Washington’s restrictions on certain microprocessors, allow Chinese investments in the US, and establish a sort of dual leadership in international trade and technological acceleration benefiting their respective priorities.
Strait of Hormuz, trade, Taiwan: the stakes of the meeting
Could Iran dominate the conversation, days after a visit to Beijing by the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs? Has an agreement been negotiated regarding the congestion in the strait? Strained in its gas and oil supplies, China has so far remained reserved, focusing on expanding its spheres of influence in Southeast Asia, playing on its image as a stabilizing power amid the chaos caused by American improvisations. Fascinated by strongmen with whom he likes to compare himself and associate despite traditional alliances, Donald Trump is likely to show numerous signs of friendship towards his host, who is aware of his political weakness approaching the midterm elections and the damage inflicted on the credibility of the United States. Could he go so far as to modify Washington’s stance on Taiwan in favor of Beijing?
We Europeans are also directly affected by the outcome of this summit. Exposed to the fluctuating tariff moods of the American president and flooded with Chinese exports, the European Union is seeking to toughen its trade policy. As the G7 approaches next month in Biarritz, transatlantic solidarity, already strained in terms of security, could either suffer or benefit from this Sino-American dialogue.
In the long term, favored by the traditionally patient Chinese regime, it is indeed a ruthless rivalry and competition that opposes China to the United States. What interpretation will the different players make of this unique moment?
>> Watch the full program on the France Culture website.
