Rare analyst to have anticipated Donald Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2024 as well as his defeat in 2020, Marie-Christine Bonzom has covered seven presidential elections and five presidencies in the United States. At the invitation of Le Devoir, she occasionally offers her expert opinion on American politics.
Rush Limbaugh foresaw this as early as 2017. Only Donald Trump could destroy his own base. As Trump’s presidency approached, the most influential talk radio host declared, “Trump has a connection with his readers that most politicians don’t have, and that connection, no one but him can break.”
Limbaugh, a king of fiery rhetoric advocating anti-system conservatism, had become an unlikely friend of former Democrat Trump and contributed to inspiring his political evolution. Today, the bond between Trump and his readers, while not completely severed, is deeply fractured. And Trump has only himself to blame.
Disregarded or betrayed promises, policies driven by force and publicity stunts, his self-centered and insulting outbursts, and suspicions of corruption explain the decline in his rating among Americans, including within the haphazard coalition that reelected him. The self-proclaimed “builder’s” presidency is widely seen as a demolition project.
According to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average polling, Trump is at his lowest point since the beginning of his second term. He stands at 40.5% approval compared to 56.4% disapproval. This is a reversal from January 2025 when 50.5% supported Trump and 44.3% disapproved.
Trump is in the red on all issues for which RCP calculates polling averages. For the economy and inflation, 60% and 67.9% disapprove, respectively. There is a 56% disapproval rating for foreign policy and Ukraine. Regarding immigration, once the only issue where Trump in his second term united the majority of Americans, 52% disapprove. The only issues with relatively split opinions are crime fighting and the handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Context: The article discusses Donald Trump’s declining popularity and fractured support base as he faces increasing disapproval among Americans. It highlights key factors contributing to this decline, including broken promises and controversial policies.
Fact Check: The article mentions Real Clear Politics (RCP) polls to support the claim of Trump’s declining approval ratings.
The operation “Epic Fury,” launched by the U.S. president on February 28, has deepened the divide between Trump and his people, especially with his 2024 coalition, as shown by the rift with personalities who campaigned for him, such as former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene or journalists Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly. According to the polling average, opposition to war with Iran, initially timid at 47.6%, has now reached 55.1%, while support for the conflict among Americans has dropped more than two points to 40.2%.
Iran is the latest and most significant issue to divide the movement that brought Trump to power (America First/Make America Great Again or MAGA). Not only does the war contradict Trump’s distinct promise (“No new wars”), but also support for the Israeli alliance is historically collapsing among Americans, especially young Republicans. This conflict raises crucial questions about the meaning of America First and who defines and will define it.
Context: The article delves into the escalating tensions within Trump’s base regarding his policies, particularly the conflict with Iran. It explores the implications for the America First movement and the broader political landscape.
Fact Check: The article highlights a shifting stance within Trump’s base on key issues like the war with Iran.
As the rift widens, the duopoly is responding by further tightening the screws of the electoral machine. Before the midterms and the presidential election, the Republican and Democratic parties are engaged in a race to gerrymander districts, with elaborate maneuvers and creative maps in Texas, California, Virginia, Florida, and other states. These parties know they struggle to persuade and thus prefer to choose their voters, rather than let the voters truly choose their representatives.
Context: The article addresses the ongoing challenges within the U.S. two-party system and the increasing disillusionment among voters with both major parties. It emphasizes the impact of gerrymandering on electoral outcomes.
Fact Check: The article discusses the controversial practice of gerrymandering and its implications for democratic representation in the U.S.
