How do geopolitical tensions influence food prices?

Global food commodity prices recorded a moderate increase for the third consecutive month in April, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This rise is attributed to the surge in energy costs and ongoing international geopolitical tensions that continue to weigh on agricultural markets.

The FAO Food Price Index, which measures the evolution of international prices for a basket of basic food products, rose by 1.6% compared to March and 2% year-on-year compared to April 2025.

Cereals remain relatively stable:
The increase in cereal prices remained limited due to sufficient stock levels and supply supported by previous seasons’ harvests.

Specifically, the FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 0.8% in a month. Wheat prices rose by 0.8%, while maize prices gained 0.7%.

FAO analysts believe that current availabilities still help contain tensions in this segment of the global food market.

Vegetable oils reach a peak since 2022:
Vegetable oils show the highest progression among the main food product categories monitored by the FAO.

The Vegetable Oil Price Index soared by 5.9% compared to March, reaching its highest level since July 2022. This jump mainly affects palm, soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed oils.

According to the FAO, rising oil prices fuel demand for biofuels, intensifying pressure on vegetable oil markets.

Meat and fertilizers also under pressure:
The meat price index increased by 1.2% in April, reaching a record level, mainly driven by beef prices.

Meanwhile, the global geopolitical context continues to escalate fertilizer costs, heavily dependent on natural gas used in their production.

FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu warned that fertilizer scarcity could lead to lower agricultural yields and reduced global food supply in the second half of the year and in 2027.

He emphasized the precise timing of fertilizer use during the agricultural cycle, noting that supply delays could have lasting impacts on harvests even if deliveries occur later.