The Super El Niño phenomenon revives fears for an Asia already tested by the war in Iran

An image showing a fire in a peat forest converted to palm oil plantations in Meulaboh, in the Indonesian province of Aceh, on February 15, 2025.

Shaken by the effects of the war in the Middle East, Asia now faces the prospect of strong El Niño weather phenomena that could boost energy demand, weaken hydroelectric production, and devastate crops. The natural climate phenomenon causes global changes in winds and precipitation. The United Nations reported that conditions for its development could emerge as early as the period from May to July. The World Meteorological Organization estimates that the episode could be particularly intense, with some calling it a “super El Niño.” The Asian continent, already vulnerable to heat waves, could be severely affected. El Niño shifts traditional rainfall, increasing the risks of droughts and fires. “The subsea anomaly we are currently observing is quite pronounced,” explains Peter van Rensch, a climatologist at Monash University in Australia. “It is reminiscent of what we observed during the 1997-1998 episode, which was probably the most intense El Niño phenomenon,” he told AFP. The outlook is still uncertain, and Mr. van Rensch points out that it is possible that El Niño may not develop at all. Impact catastrophic In 1997, El Niño caused devastating fires in Indonesia. Today, authorities fear the lowest rainfall in 30 years. These alerts come as Asia faces fears of fuel and fertilizer shortages passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has closed this strategic waterway since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the country on February 28, disrupting global fuel supplies. The rise in temperatures will stress already fragile electrical grids, warns Haneea Isaad, an energy financing specialist at the IEEFA (Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis). “For countries heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas deliveries, supply pressures will result in increased fuel rationing, demand management, and reduced economic activities (…) affecting overall GDP growth,” she told AFP. The droughts El Niño may cause in some parts of the region also pose a threat to countries heavily dependent on hydroelectricity, emphasized Dinita Setyawati, an analyst at the think tank Ember. “Most ASEAN countries rely heavily on hydroelectricity,” she warned, pointing out that countries like Hong Kong, Nepal, and some regions of Malaysia are particularly vulnerable. These risks were highlighted in 2022 when a heatwave in China led to a more than 50% drop in hydroelectric production in Sichuan, causing power shortages affecting both households and industry. Agricultural risks A warmer and drier climate will also create new risks for agriculture, already under pressure from rising costs of fertilizers and energy needed for farming equipment. “If crop prices do not increase enough to offset the rising costs of inputs and transportation, producers’ margins will shrink, increasing the risk of reduced fertilizer inputs and lower yields,” warned BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions. “This would exacerbate food price inflation and increase food insecurity, especially in import-dependent and climate-vulnerable markets.” In some parts of Asia, El Niño could cause intense precipitation and floods, impacting sectors like rice cultivation in southern China, according to Ms. Isaad. The impact of climate change on the El Niño phenomenon is still not well understood. However, research shows that climate change will result in more frequent and intense heatwaves, as well as sudden, heavy rainfall causing floods. Faced with these threats, experts recommend that countries in the region strengthen the resilience of their energy systems by diversifying and greening their networks. “Solar and wind power, coupled with batteries, offer a more resilient infrastructure than centralized fossil fuel infrastructure,” said Ms. Setyawati.