Will the next war in the Middle East occur between Turkey and Israel?

On an eight-hour detour. On April 27, 2026, the Israeli presidential plane sketches an unlikely arc across Europe and Russia to avoid Turkey. Destination: Kazakhstan. The reason? Recep Tayyip Erdogan has just denied access to his airspace to President Isaac Herzog. Last March, the Turkish leader declared that “Netanyahu surpassed Hitler in barbarity.” Ten days earlier, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had claimed that Turkey was “the new Iran.” Between these two former allies, words of war have replaced diplomacy.

How did we get here? The contrast is striking. In 1949, Turkey became the first predominantly Muslim country to recognize the State of Israel. The goal: to align with the Western camp and join NATO, which was accomplished in 1951. During the Cold War, Ankara managed to maintain its relations with Tel Aviv while navigating the Arab powers. How? By adopting a cautious neutrality during major conflicts (such as Suez in 1956, Six Days in 1967, and Yom Kippur in 1973). And when Turkey recognized the Palestinian state in 1988, economic ties with Israel did not suffer. The 1990s even marked the golden age of Israeli-Turkish relations.