United States – Iran

Two weeks after the announcement of the ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, proclaimed on April 8 by American President Donald Trump, the Jean-Jaurès Foundation organized a briefing on the occasion of the release of Clément Therme’s new book, “Iran-Israel: The Ideological War from 1979 to the Present” (Tallandier, 2026). As a researcher associated with the Turkey/Middle East Program of the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri), he is recognized as one of the specialists on Iran.

Initially agreed upon for a two-week duration, the ceasefire was eventually extended “sine die” by Washington the day before its expiration, without explicit validation from Tehran, amidst persistent distrust. Today, the truce is formally holding but remains extremely fragile: mutual accusations of violations are increasing, negotiations are hesitant and indirect, and several signals indicate ongoing conflict, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz or through actors like Hezbollah.

This briefing, held in partnership with the Atlantic Middle East Forum (AMEF), was part of the activities of the North Africa and Middle East Observatory of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. Hosted by David Khalfa, co-director of the Observatory, the event was reserved for journalists and researchers and resulted in the text below, written by Rachel Nakache, project manager at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation.

According to Clément Therme, the Iran could not be reduced to a simple authoritarian regime but resembles a complex system where various power centers such as the clergy, the Revolutionary Guards, and intelligence services are closely linked. The rise of the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence services since 2009 is not a rupture but aligns with a longer history. Clément Therme also distinguishes between an institutional clergy, integrated into power and seen as corrupt or self-interested, and a non-institutional clergy closer to the people.

Furthermore, he emphasizes a transnational ideology that goes beyond Iran and contributes to the cohesion between the ruling elites and their support networks, both domestically and abroad. This ideology serves as a tool for legitimacy while the regime’s actual priority remains the consolidation and stability of the regime.

However, reducing the regime’s functioning to ideology alone is simplistic according to Clément Therme. He highlights a pragmatic governance logic based on power survival. In this aspect, repression is regarded as a strategic political tool depending on threats and power dynamics.

Additionally, he explores the relations between the regime and Iranian society, indicating tension that permeates various aspects of daily life, triggering expressions of dissent and contestation.

On the regional dynamics, Clément Therme discusses the structuring roles of external powers like the US, the diplomatic nuances with Russia and the evolving role of European nations in dealing with the Iranian issue among other geopolitical considerations. The discussion emphasizes the various trajectories ahead with no definite consensus on the future direction, possibly leading to a continuation of the current status quo.

In conclusion, the article delves into the complexities of the political landscape, highlighting the intricacies of power dynamics within and surrounding Iran and the limitations and challenges inherent in shaping future scenarios in the region.