An American soldier prosecuted for betting on Maduros downfall

(Washington) An American soldier, suspected of pocketing over $400,000 by betting on the fall of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, has been charged with fraud, the US Department of Justice announced on Thursday.

The soldier, named Gannon Ken Van Dyke, is accused of using confidential information to bet on the US intervention in Venezuela on January 3rd on the Polymarket prediction site, the department clarified in a statement.

Stationed at the Fort Bragg military base in North Carolina, the suspect had “participated in the planning and execution” of the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro and bring him to the United States, according to the statement.

“He had access to sensitive, non-public, and classified information about this operation,” the statement said.

Starting in early December, the 38-year-old man placed a total of approximately $33,000 on 13 bets related to an American intervention in Venezuela or the fall of President Maduro.

“As a result, Van Dyke won his bets on these contracts. In total, he would have made a profit of about $409,881,” according to the department.

He is charged, among other things, with “unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain,” “theft of government information,” electronic fraud, and illegal monetary transactions, charges that could result in several decades of prison.

“Men and women in uniform have access to classified information […] and they are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche.

Prediction sites like Polymarket or Kalshi, which allow users to bet on the likelihood of an event occurring, have already been implicated in conflicts in the Middle East.

Accounts opened on Polymarket thus pocketed $1.2 million after betting on an American attack on Iran on February 28, the day the offensive began.

In late March, a wave of selling in the oil market just minutes before an announcement by Donald Trump mentioning discussions with Iran also sparked suspicion among brokers and politicians, with many seeing it as insider trading.