The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz highlights China’s energy dependence and geopolitical vulnerability in the face of American dominance.
The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a direct consequence of escalating crisis in the Middle East, reveals the strategic fragility of China. For Beijing, where nearly a third of its oil imports pass through this maritime chokepoint, the impact goes beyond the economic dimension to become a major geopolitical test in its growing rivalry with the United States. The current crisis underscores the structural dependence of an economic superpower on a security order that it does not control.
Strait of Hormuz: China’s Achilles’ heel
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the few areas where China’s energy needs directly clash with American military power. Washington, with the support of its Gulf allies, ensures the essential maritime security in this region vital to the global economy. This situation puts Beijing in an uncomfortable position: its prosperity depends on maritime routes it does not control, suppliers located in an area heavily influenced by the US, and an energy corridor exposed to regional upheavals.
The current crisis starkly reminds the Chinese government that its rise to power is conditioned by external factors. The vulnerability is twofold: energy-wise, with the risk of supply disruptions or uncontrollable price spikes, and geopolitically, demonstrating dependence on stability guaranteed by its main strategic rival.
Diversification and corridors: Beijing’s quest for autonomy
Aware of this vulnerability, Beijing has been seeking to cushion potential shocks for several years. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) had already identified energy security as an absolute national priority. The crisis in Hormuz only accelerates three ongoing fundamental dynamics.
The first is diversifying suppliers by turning more towards Russia, several African and Latin American countries to reduce dependence on the Gulf. The second is developing land corridors, especially through Central Asia as part of the new silk roads, to bypass maritime chokepoints. Lastly, China has significantly strengthened its strategic oil reserves, allowing it to temporarily cushion the impact of the crisis. However, these solutions, while relevant, do not eliminate the structural dependence of the Chinese industry on Middle Eastern oil in the medium term.
Influence game on both sides in the Middle East
The conflict in the region highlights a central paradox in the Sino-American rivalry. While the US remains the dominant military power, capable of projecting force and securing maritime routes, China has become, over the years, the primary economic partner for nearly all countries in the region.
Beijing finds itself exposed to dynamics it does not control: American military decisions, dynamic political instability, and physical risks to energy flows. Faced with this situation, Chinese diplomacy strives to position itself as a stabilizing actor and mediator. However, its political and security influence remains limited compared to the deep historical strategic anchorage of the US.
The global South, a diplomatic ally but not a strategic solution
To counterbalance American pressure, China actively consolidates partnerships with countries in the “global South” in Africa, Latin America, and South Asia. These alliances serve a triple purpose: secure raw material supplies outside the Middle East, extend diplomatic influence in an increasingly fragmented world, and build a support network against Washington.
However, while these partnerships undoubtedly strengthen China’s weight on the international stage, they do not offset the central role of the Gulf in its energy equation. The global South appears more as an influence multiplier than a true short-term strategic substitute.
A structural dilemma: economic power versus geopolitical dependence
Despite this external shock, the Chinese economy demonstrates notable resilience, as evidenced by its 5% growth in the first quarter of 2026. Nevertheless, the Hormuz crisis reveals the profound dilemma facing Beijing: China aspires to become a global power, yet it remains dependent on a maritime and security order largely dominated by the US.
This structural contradiction is at the core of the Sino-American rivalry. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz confirms that while China progresses towards greater autonomy, it remains, for now, vulnerable to the upheavals of a world order in full recomposition, an order that Beijing has not yet the capacity to reshape in its favor.
Bernard BERTUCCO VAN DAMME via Press Agence.
