More than the immense progress made in all types of missiles in terms of range, power, and accuracy, it is AI and drones that are the cause of the fundamental revolution that weapons are undergoing.
The era of drones emerged in conflicts that opposed Azerbaijan (backed by Israel and Turkey) and Armenia in 2023, followed by the war in Ukraine where they began to completely disrupt the battlefield from 2023 onwards (the first year was a relatively classic combat between armored mechanized forces) and finally the clashes against Iran in 2025 and 2026.
The recent integration of AI is creating regions of coordinated machines that, in the future, will operate in relatively autonomous groups tracking, identifying, and neutralizing enemy forces if the latter have not undergone their own technological revolution.
Indeed, the latest developments have rendered a large part of conventional arsenals obsolete and disrupted the strategies and tactics that have been in place since World War II.
For military strategists, it is a matter of rethinking everything, especially trying to imagine where this evolution will lead, as it is only in its early stages and what we know today is just a transitional period.
It is undeniable that this will pose many problems for armament programs that span decades.
The lessons from the past are concerning. Massive investments in military projects that turned out to be failures have highlighted numerous inefficiencies, such as in the case of the two British aircraft carriers – presumed to be potentially useful in a high-intensity conflict of these two floating targets – while adversaries like Iran and China are exploiting affordable but innovative technologies to challenge Western supremacy.
Beijing has developed the technique of “drone swarms.” Innovations include AI-integrated micro-drones for use by infantry, such as models engaging in reconnaissance or autonomous bombing missions.
For example, the Jiutian SS-UAV system allows coordinated swarm attacks, surpassing many competitors in terms of numbers and intelligence.
In the field of electronic warfare, China has tested swarms of 1,000 to 2,000 drones to generate electromagnetic interference, simulating disruptions to systems like Starlink above strategic areas.
On the other hand, Iran has “democratized” aerial warfare through low-cost drones like the Shahed-136, which disrupted Ukrainian efforts supported by NATO. Deployed by Russia to target infrastructure, these drones, costing around $20,000 each, enable mass production that eventually overwhelms enemy defenses.
The United States responded by capturing some of these drones and copying them to develop their own low-cost “Low-cost Uncrewed (Unmanned) Combat Attack System (LUCAS),” now operational in the Middle East.
Some Research Directions
After tanks were withdrawn from the frontlines in Ukraine to only serve as mobile artillery, infantry has broken its tactical patterns, with mechanized combat being replaced by light units creating uncertain and evolving frontlines.
For instance, President Zelensky declared on April 13 that a Russian position had been taken solely by ground and aerial drones. It is likely that this announcement is somewhat exaggerated, as operators were present – albeit in the background – and only three Russian soldiers surrendered. However, humans were needed to disarm and send them back.
According to General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Ukrainian Chief of Staff who spoke on April 9, Ukrainian drones conducted over 11,000 combat missions in March 2026 and struck over 150,000 targets, which is staggering.
If ground forces have to rethink their approach, the same goes for aviation and the navy.
Some High-Altitude, Long-Endurance (HALE) drones currently carry a variety of weapons with ranges far superior to current fighters, operating at much higher altitudes.
There are also a few models with hybrid propulsion, and with the arrival of new batteries currently in development, these drones will be able to stay aloft for several days.
Furthermore, Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites are revolutionizing the field by providing real-time missile guidance and advanced ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) capabilities.
Extremely expensive 6th generation fighters may become obsolete before even being deployed.
On the other hand, 6th generation drones could pose a major threat to manned aircraft.
Combat helicopters with extremely limited roles seem to be doomed in the long run.
In the maritime domain, with just two MQ-4C Triton drones, the Americans are able to monitor all maritime traffic in the Atlantic in 48 hours, conducting specific searches of ships using AIS, photos, or registration numbers, although this capability can degrade based on weather conditions.
Other major nations are also making efforts in this direction. Consequently, it is foreseeable that large vessels will be limited in the future to acting as long-range missile launch platforms from protected areas far from engagement zones, much like nuclear submarines. Detectable, they can be precisely targeted by ballistic and cruise missiles, underwater drones, with the most publicized being the Russian versatile oceanic system 2M39 Poseidon.
All these offensive weapons can be guided in real-time along their trajectories and have ranges of thousands of kilometers.
The rapidly developing electronic warfare can jam or saturate many surveillance systems.
The challenge for military personnel and engineers tasked with developing future weapons is that they will not be the ones implementing them. Therefore, it is very difficult for them to predict the future, and engaging in programs that span decades is a very delicate discipline.
