Trump faces a moment of truth in his presidency. And perhaps even in his two presidencies. Not so much on the military front, but rather on the political terrain. While his electorate still holds (55% of Republicans support strikes on Iran), the Maga galaxy itself is beginning to crack. Since the launch of “Epic Fury” on February 28, anger has been rumbling, sometimes openly. Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, two former Fox News stars, have expressed it openly. Kelly delivered a sentence that sums it all up: “Nobody should die for a foreign country.” Carlson echoed it with strikes that are “absolutely disgusting.”
The dispute quickly escalated into an open war among the opinion-makers of Trumpism. Other commentators, such as Mark Levin or Ben Shapiro, on the contrary, defend the presidential decision, accusing critics of abandoning Israel and Western security. The fundamental question is simple: has Trumpism become interventionist? For nearly a decade, Trump had been presented as the man who would end the “endless wars,” especially in the Middle East. However, for some, the attack on Iran looks like a return to neoconservative reflexes that the Maga movement claimed to have buried.
In this schism, J.D. Vance remains silent. The vice president observes.
Two variables can tip everything over. The first is the flag effect. The White House is counting on a classic patriotic reflex: in times of war, part of the public rallies around the president… For now, it is not happening. Trump is now below 40% in most major national polls. Among independent voters, the drop is even more significant: only 31% of them have a favorable opinion of the president, according to a survey published this week by Newsweek. No rally around the flag effect is visible at this point. A small hope: the last time a Republican president won the midterms, it was George W. Bush in 2002, during the Iraq intervention!
Then, there is the issue of gas prices. The average gallon price has jumped by 26 cents in one week to reach $3.25, the highest since April 2025. If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen quickly, experts anticipate $100 per barrel and $4 per gallon… In the US, a president’s rating is also measured at the gas station. And there, it’s middle America – those who vote for Trump – that will suffer first.
In this schism, J.D. Vance remains silent. The vice president observes. Less interventionist than Secretary of State Marco Rubio, his likely rival for the 2028 Republican primary, he also remains more attuned to the populist base of Trumpism. A base where evangelicals play a central role. Last Thursday, in the Oval Office, several pastors laid hands on Trump and prayed with him. This fervent and disciplined segment of the Republican electorate is the most pro-Israel in the country. The conflict may well seal the fate of the mullahs. It will also determine how far Trump can still lead his people.
