Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the United States: Its quite unprecedented, analyzes the political scientist Br

The United States plans to impose a blockade on Iranian ports starting Monday, in response to the blockade imposed by Tehran on the Strait of Hormuz.

Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), said on Franceinfo on Monday, April 13th that “responding to a blockade with a blockade is something quite unprecedented“, as the United States plans to impose a blockade on Iranian ports starting at 4 pm. Only the circulation of ships not departing from or heading to Iran will be allowed in the Strait of Hormuz. “I am very skeptical about the success of this maneuver,” says Bruno Tertrais.

“The idea is to regain control of the Strait of Hormuz while Iran, in fact, has taken control of it,” he continues. According to him, the situation could quickly become complex: “We will have to sort out the ships that come from an Iranian port. I do not know what the US Navy will do if a Chinese ship wants to enter or exit to go to an Iranian port, since China now buys 90% of the oil exported by Iran.”

Regarding Donald Trump, Bruno Tertrais recalls that “the former president has accustomed us to almost daily tactical reversals. It is possible that at 3:59 pm, he will say: ‘I give one last chance to peace or diplomacy’.” He also highlights the pleasure the American president takes in keeping the world on edge: “There is nothing Donald Trump enjoys more than having the entire world holding its breath. We still do not know if there will indeed be this theoretical imposition of the blockade at 4:00 pm.”

On the diplomatic sequence, the expert believes that there are no winners in this power struggle between Tehran and Washington: “There are only losers. If we absolutely have to designate one, it is rather the Iranian regime that is winning,” as he believes the “country has managed to keep its regime standing after a month of bombings.”

Finally, Bruno Tertrais fears a rapid resumption of hostilities: “It is quite likely that the fighting will resume, perhaps within ten days. I cannot imagine that it is credible that negotiations resume and lead to an agreement that would end the conflict,” adding that he believes “even less in an agreement that would put an end to the conflict.”‘