Forest damage in Europe is expected to increase by 20% by 2100 compared to the last decades, even if the world adheres to ambitious climate measures.
A new international study published in the journal Science, which contributed to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, warns that forest fires, storms, and bark beetle outbreaks – all exacerbated by climate change – are endangering crucial carbon sinks.
Even in a scenario where global warming is limited to about 2°C, researchers found that the disturbed forest area each year could increase from about 180,000 to around 216,000 hectares by the end of the century, compared to the “unprecedented disturbance levels” observed between 1986 and 2020.
Conversely, in a scenario where fossil fuel use continues to rise – resulting in an even greater temperature increase – nearly 370,000 hectares could be affected each year by the end of the century.
European forests are under threat
The study warns that forests in southern and western Europe will be particularly affected and will experience the “most marked changes” in terms of forest disturbances.
While Northern Europe is expected to be generally less severely impacted, researchers emphasize that hotspots of future forest damage should still emerge.
Last year, over 1,800 forest fires were recorded in the EU, releasing about 38 million tons of CO2. Scientists indicate that many of these fires occurred in areas where climate anomalies had made conditions much drier and hotter than average.
Related
The year 2025 was particularly dramatic for Portugal and Spain, with both countries experiencing record mega-fires responsible for over two-thirds of the damages suffered by the EU.
According to World Weather Attribution (WWA), these deadly fires were about 40 times more likely due to climate change.
Why are forests so important in combating climate change?
Europe is one of the most forested regions globally, with almost 40% of its land area covered in forests.
These spaces not only support most terrestrial species of animals, plants, and indigenous fungi on the continent, but they also serve as a vital carbon sink that absorbs CO2 from the air and helps combat climate change.
Forests also play a crucial role in providing clean water, reducing flood risk, and enhancing food security.
However, Christopher Reyer, a researcher at PIK and co-author of the study, believes that European forests will likely absorb less carbon in the future.
“If forests capture less carbon, or potentially release more than they absorb, it increases pressure on other sectors, such as transport and agriculture, to reduce their emissions more rapidly,” he adds.
“At the same time, forest management must focus much more on building resilient forests.”
Is the EU planting enough trees?
In 2010, the EU launched its initiative for three billion trees, a milestone that could help remove up to 15 million tons of CO2 from the air annually by 2050.
However, according to an online tool set up by the Commission, fewer than 38 million trees have been planted in the EU to date.
In other words, six years after its launch, the EU has only achieved about 1.26% of its goal. Without a dramatic increase in the pace of planting, it is unlikely that three billion new trees will be reached by 2030.
An official from the Commission tells Euronews Green that this initiative is a “voluntary commitment” aimed at mobilizing organizations and individuals active in tree planting to declare their efforts – not a mandatory commitment.
The Commission plans to launch a prize next year to reward “innovative and high-impact tree plantations” in the hope of making significant progress towards this goal.
This text has been translated with the help of artificial intelligence. Report an issue: [feedback-articles-fr@euronews.com].
