Months of intelligence work, real-time surveillance, and a coordinated disinformation campaign allowed Israeli forces to strike top Iranian leaders in the morning, catching Tehran off guard, which was expecting a night attack.
About 12 hours after the launch of Operation Roaring Lion, officials declared that the central element was how Israel managed to surprise Iran for the second time in less than a year – despite months of public debate about the possibility of war.
Officials described this success as a tactical surprise rather than strategic, but stated that it fundamentally shaped the initial phase of the campaign.
According to security officials, this surprise was the result of several months of intensive intelligence work to map out the activity patterns among top Iranian leaders, identifying their usual gatherings and determining moments when key officials would be least prepared for an attack.
Military intelligence and Mossad estimated that Iran was expecting a strike overnight. Instead, the operation began in the morning, a decision that, according to officials, created an unexpected window of vulnerability.
This operation required real-time intelligence to precisely locate important locations and personalities, aiming to eliminate as many high-value targets as possible with the first strike. Officials stated that the window of opportunity for such action significantly reduced after the initial strike, as leaders dispersed and security tightened.
Political leaders were closely linked to what officials called a vast disinformation campaign. The Security Cabinet approved Operation Roaring Lion on Saturday morning, after ministers received updated information in recent days on the possibility of a preemptive strike.
High-ranking Cabinet members were summoned Saturday morning to the military command bunker, where they directed the operation as it unfolded.
A security official stated that the decision to strike in the morning was motivated by operational considerations and the goal of sowing confusion among Iranian decision-makers. The official declared, “All actions in recent weeks were aimed at misleading them. Everything was planned in advance.”
As part of this disinformation operation, ministers and senior officials who were informed under strict confidentiality agreements were instructed not to take concrete measures that could hint at an imminent operation, including avoiding any unusual logistical steps such as purchasing food for emergency command centers before the weekend.
Some officials reportedly made routine purchases only after the start of the operation. In the days leading up to the strike, officials questioned about the timing stated that it would not take place on Friday, which turned out to be true, as the operation began on Saturday morning.
Shortly before the attack, the Chinese satellite company MizarVision, which had reported on the reinforcement of US forces in the Middle East, stated that US fighter jets in the region were “all in position” with no signs of large-scale activity. The company also suggested that any Israeli preemptive strike would likely be conducted independently.
Both assessments were proven incorrect after it became clear that the campaign was a coordinated operation between Israel and the United States.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as US President Donald Trump, released prerecorded video messages shortly after the start of the operation, calling on the Iranian people to rise up. Once the campaign was launched, Netanyahu spoke with Trump. The Prime Minister’s office released a photo of the conversation showing Netanyahu in the command bunker, seated next to a large map of the Middle East.
At the start of the war, about 200 fighter jets struck around 500 targets. Officials stated that since the beginning of the campaign, Israel and the US have used over 2,000 munitions.
Officials stated that the main mission is to track missile launchers to reduce Iran’s ability to fire ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones towards Israel.
Despite the intensity of the initial strike, officials warned that it was too early to speak of a collapse of the Iranian command structure. They described Iranian leaders as experienced and warned that the coming days would reveal how they would adapt after the initial shock.
Initial responses were visible shortly after the start, with air raid sirens sounding repeatedly across Israel.
