The conflict in the Middle East, according to the OECD, is significantly driving up global inflation – up to 4.2% in the United States – due to the energy shock, while also posing an increased risk of economic slowdown, despite varying impacts across countries.
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is dramatically reshaping the global economy. According to the latest OECD forecasts, the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is expected to cause a sharp acceleration in inflation, especially in the United States. The organization anticipates a 4.2% increase in prices in the United States this year (compared to 2.6% in 2025), making it the highest among G7 countries.
During the previous inflation shock, prices had risen by an average of 8.2% in the United States in 2022 and 5.7% in 2023, before declining to 2.8% in 2024.
The inflationary pressure will be felt everywhere, but to varying degrees according to the organization. It is projected to be 4% in the United Kingdom (3.4% in 2025), 2.9% in Italy (1.6% in 2025), and 1.8% in France (0.9% in 2025), which would be the G20 country with the lowest price increase after China.
“In the advanced G20 economies, global inflation is expected to reach 4% in 2026, 1.2 percentage points higher than initially expected, according to the OECD, before falling to 2.7% in 2027 thanks to the easing of tensions on energy prices.”
This inflation shock is primarily explained by the surge in energy prices. Oil and natural gas have sharply increased since the hostilities began at the end of February, dragging along other strategic commodities.
Growth of 0.8% in France
The OECD warns of “significant risks of slowdown” if disruptions were to intensify. Uncertainty remains high regarding the duration of the conflict, but a prolongation of energy tensions would have direct consequences: higher costs for businesses, decreased purchasing power, and a marked brake on growth.
Beyond energy, other critical sectors are also threatened. Fertilizers, a large portion of exports (about 34%) of which come from the Gulf, as well as crucial resources like helium or bromine, essential especially for the semiconductor industry, could become aggravating factors. According to the OECD, a prolonged crisis would pose a real risk of shortages and could durably weaken global growth.
In the United States, this pressure is expected to weigh on economic activity. Growth is expected to be 2% this year, gradually slowing to 1.7% by 2027. A significantly weakened outlook compared to initial perspectives, even as the American economy showed resilience earlier in the year.
The slowdown is not limited to the United States. Globally, growth is projected to decline to 2.9% in 2026, down from 3.3% last year, before a slight rebound to 3% the following year. The Eurozone, particularly exposed to energy shocks, would see its growth limited to 0.8% this year, with a moderate recovery expected in 2027. In France, growth is expected to be 0.8% this year after 0.9% in 2025.
