Venezuela. Three months after the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro by the United States, the country in …

Almost three months after his abduction ordered by Donald Trump, Nicolas Maduro appears for the second time in front of a New York court this Thursday. The American justice accuses the ousted Venezuelan president of being involved in an international drug trafficking.

Since his kidnapping, Venezuela has practically become a vassal of the United States. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who is acting, has been forced to pledge allegiance to the American president while formally demanding the liberation of her mentor. By deposing Nicolas Maduro, Donald Trump wanted to reaffirm American supremacy on the American continent and seize control of Venezuela’s oil reserves, the largest in the world. “The new Venezuelan hydrocarbons law is a 180-degree turn. Licenses have been granted to five companies, four of which are European. American Chevron was already present but will now be able to expand its activities,” explains Thomas Posado, a master of conferences in Latin American civilization at the University of Rouen.

Political reforms are much more modest. “The Trump administration continues its efforts to rebuild the country’s economy and link it to that of the United States, but there is no progress towards a democratic transition,” laments Elliott Abrams, a researcher at the Council for Foreign Relations. “American demands are more about economic matters than political ones,” confirms Thomas Posado. “Political liberalization is much more convoluted. The regime maintains authoritarian order. Hundreds of political prisoners have been released but 500 remain behind bars,” adds the author of the book Venezuela: from revolution to collapse (Presses universitaires du Midi).

Trump’s “favorite” very unpopular

While Nicolas Maduro is in prison in the United States, Venezuelans still suffer from a catastrophic economic situation and an inflation of over 600%. Venezuela is not benefiting from the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. “Producing more oil will take a lot of time,” explains Thomas Posado. “Chevron estimates that it will take two years to increase production from 250,000 to 375,000 barrels per day. There is no financial windfall in sight,” emphasizes Elliott Abrams. Oil revenues may even decrease as the United States imposes a significant reduction in royalties on the Venezuelan state, which could be halved.

In this context, Delcy Rodriguez risks becoming as unpopular as Nicolas Maduro, who won the 2024 presidential election through massive electoral fraud. According to a poll, she would lose a free election with 25% of the vote intentions against 67% for the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado if the main Venezuelan opponent could return from exile. “Organizing transparent elections is not the priority of Delcy Rodriguez or Donald Trump,” notes Thomas Posado.