In a highly tense international context, American intelligence has chosen, for once, to adopt a very measured tone. In its latest report published this Wednesday on one of the potential hot spots in the coming years, intelligence estimates that China will not invade Taiwan during the year 2027.
Last year, the American military estimated that Beijing was preparing to attack Taiwan in 2027 for the centenary of the founding of its People’s Liberation Army. China was even refining its options at that time to use “brute force” if necessary.
“China has never renounced the use of force”
One year later, in fact, nothing has happened. “In 2026, Beijing will probably continue to seek to create the conditions for a possible unification with Taiwan, without resorting to conflict,” the report predicts. Chinese officials acknowledge that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan “would be extremely complex to carry out and would entail a high risk of failure, especially in the event of US intervention.”
Therefore, Chinese leaders do not currently plan to launch an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, and they also do not have a “fixed timetable for achieving unification,” according to the annual US intelligence threat assessment report.
“The China has never renounced the use of force against Taiwan, and its ongoing military intimidations and operations in the gray zone constitute serious threats not only to Taiwan, but also to regional peace and stability,” can still be read.
Its deployments of warships or combat aircraft around the island have become almost daily. Last week, Chinese fishing boats were seen gathered in large numbers and geometric formations in the East China Sea near Taiwan, a coordination that intrigues experts who believe these vessels were not there for fishing.
