The economist E.J Antoni, at one time chosen by Trump to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics, warns that the surge in energy prices linked to the Middle East war will impact “prices throughout the American economy.”
A new warning for Donald Trump just months before the midterm elections. As economists’ forecasts darken since the start of the war in Iran – some predicting stagflation in the United States, others a recession – it is now a close associate of the American president who is warning of the conflict’s impact on businesses and consumers on the other side of the Atlantic.
“I don’t think our economy can handle a $100 per barrel oil price, it’s simply impossible,” E.J. Antoni stated in the Financial Times.
This conservative economist had initially been appointed by Donald Trump himself to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics. He was supposed to succeed Erika McEntarfer, who was dismissed in mid-2025 by the president for allegedly publishing falsified figures. E.J. Antoni’s appointment was eventually canceled, with the White House opting instead for its economic advisor Brett Matsumoto.
Since the start of the Middle East war, oil prices have surged. This Thursday, the Brent barrel price increased by over 10%, to $118. Meanwhile, the WTI barrel, the U.S. market benchmark, was trading for over $98, up from less than $70 before the first strikes on Iran.
This surge in energy prices is not without consequences for the American economy as it will “put upward pressure on prices throughout the American economy,” warns E.J. Antoni. Gas prices have already risen in the U.S., reaching $3.84 per gallon, up from $3.92 a month ago, while diesel has exceeded $5.
An “economy more fragile than we thought”
And American motorists are feeling the impact, naturally. This is concerning for Republican politicians with the midterm elections approaching in November, especially considering that the American economy was, even before the start of the war, “more fragile than we thought, and inflation is worse than expected,” notes E.J. Antoni.
The growth of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the last quarter of 2025 has been significantly revised down to 0.7% on an annualized basis. The American economy unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February, while economists had predicted 59,000 net creations.
This slowdown in the American economy is expected to worsen with the consequences of the Middle East conflict. Several economists, like Joseph Stiglitz, have warned of the risk of stagflation (low growth, high inflation). On Wednesday, the agency Moody’s even stated that a recession within the next twelve months was becoming the most likely scenario.
