War in Iran, shock wave: in the United States, the inflationary backlash weakens Trump politically

On Monday, March 9, the markets were in turmoil as the price of oil crossed the symbolic $100 mark, a first since 2022. The announcement of an upcoming end to the conflict by Donald Trump in an interview with CBS temporarily calmed the stock markets. Later, in a press conference in Florida, the president struggled to provide real solutions.

Meanwhile, at the pump, consumers are seeing a steep increase. According to the GasBuddy website, the average price of regular gasoline has risen by 61 cents, reaching an average of $3.55 per gallon on Wednesday, March 10. “The gallon has already exceeded $4. Here, it’s already over $5 for diesel. Prices are above the national average, and we are in a poor region,” said Ron Moose, a 34-year-old commercial service technician living in Johnstown, Pennsylvania. In this part of the “Rust Belt,” the Northeast is heavily industrialized, as is the majority of the country, and the car remains indispensable.

The specter of a protest vote

Across the Atlantic, the cost of living is one of the priorities for voters. Therefore, the economic context serves as a repudiation for the White House, which has been struggling to defend its actions in recent months. “The risk associated with fuel prices could be quite high,” said economist Terrence Guay, a professor at Pennsylvania State University. This will have an impact on inflationary pressures in the United States, which will have two major effects: first, the Federal Reserve will be hesitant to lower interest rates and may even increase them; second, most Americans will be very upset with how the conflict is unfolding. Given the current situation and recent announcements, a change of heart by the executive branch on the Iranian issue cannot be ruled out.

“Midterm elections are a referendum on how the president has carried out his duties.”

Because the specter of a protest vote looms over the presidential camp in the midterm elections scheduled for November. While Donald Trump has mentioned the possibility of lifting some international sanctions to lower gas prices, the announcement remains vague. Currently, only Russia could benefit from the situation.

Tarnished image

However, the Republican must deal with an image tarnished by his handling of the Epstein affair or his interventionist plans. “Midterm elections are a referendum on how the president has carried out his duties,” warns Todd Belt, a political communication specialist and professor at George Washington University. If the conflict is perceived as an additional example of impulsive governance, it could become a decisive factor in the elections.